生态科学2025，Vol.44Issue(6)：160-170,11.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2025.06.017
共享社会经济路径下华南地区土地利用变化趋势
Future trends of land use change in Southern China under shared socioeconomic pathways
摘要
Abstract
Southern China stands out as one of the most dynamic regions in the country,marked by significant shifts in land use and economic activities.Effective land use planning is pivotal for ensuring sustainable development in this region.However,most existing research tends to focus on short timeframes or single future scenarios,lacking comprehensive analyses across longer periods and multiple scenario pathways.This study addressed these gaps by examining land use changes from 1980 to 2020 using eight phases of land use data.It also forecasted land use patterns from 2021 to 2100 across seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)scenarios.The analysis was segmented into near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100)periods.The results showed that:(1)Between 1980 and 2020,there was a notable decline in cropland,forest land,and grassland areas,accompanied by a substantial 31.35%increase in urban land by 2020 compared to 1980.This urban expansion was primarily at the expense of forest land and cropland.The most rapid changes occurred from 1990 to 1995,with urban land growing by approximately 19.69%and cropland shrinking by about 9.6%.(2)Projections under different scenarios indicated that urban land area would expand by 16%(range:5%-22%)in the near term,25%(range:13%-32%)in the mid-term,and 10%(range:-7%-13%)in the long term compared to 2020 levels.This growth was mainly driven by the conversion of forest land.Conversely,grassland was expected to decrease3%(range:0.7%-11%),12%(range:2%-28%),and 22%(range:6%-53%)over the same periods.(3)The total increase in urban land area was estimated to range from 923 km² to 2272 km² by 2100,with the most pronounced expansion occurring during the near term(2021-2040).By 2040,urban expansion will be most noticeable in the southeastern and central regions of Southern China.This trend of urban growth is expected to persist until the mid-21st century,coinciding with a continual decrease in grassland area throughout the study periods.These findings provide valuable insights for land resource management authorities to formulate comprehensive and informed development strategies.关键词
土地利用/变化趋势/共享社会经济路径(SSPs)/华南地区Key words
land use/evolutionary trend/shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs)/Southern China分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
董志博,徐润宏,王晨旭,苏布达,陈思蓉,姜彤..共享社会经济路径下华南地区土地利用变化趋势[J].生态科学,2025,44(6):160-170,11.基金项目
广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080060) （桂科AB22080060）
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX24_1463) （KYCX24_1463）
江西省气象局重点项目(JX2021Z06 （）
JX2022Z08) （）
