水生态学杂志2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：25-36,12.DOI:10.15928/j.1674-3075.202309220262
基于CMIP6的岷沱江流域径流预估
Predicting Future Runoff in the Minjiang-Tuojiang River Basin Using CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
The Minjiang-Tuojiang River basin is an important part of the Yangtze River basin,serving as an ecological corridor for the upper Yangtze River.Anticipating changes in basin runoff are crucial for planning sustainable development within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and we explored fu-ture runoff scenarios for the Minjiang-Tuojiang River.The period 1981-2014 was selected as the base-line period,and the periods 2017-2050 and 2057-2090 were chosen as the future periods.Based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),four sets of daily meteorological data from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)scenarios from six well-simulated Global Climate Models(GCMs)in CMIP6 were selected for multi-model ensem-ble(MME)research,and future runoff of the Minjiang-Tuojiang River under the four SSP scenarios were evaluated.Results show:(1)The SWAT model is suitable for simulating Minjiang-Tuojiang River runoff and monthly runoff simulation results for the seven hydrological stations in the study area were excellent.(2)The correlation coefficients for temperature and precipitation simulated by MME were 0.99 and 0.93,respectively,and the simulated values were very close to the observed values.(3)Compared with the base-line period,the average annual temperature in Minjiang-Tuojiang River will increase under the various scenarios of the future,with the highest increase under the SSP5.8-5 scenario,and average annual precipi-tation will show a fluctuating upward trend.(4)Under the scenarios,Minjiang-Tuojiang River runoff will decrease during the two future periods.The magnitude of runoff reduction will be greater during the first period(2017-2050)than the second period(2057-2090),with the highest reductions occurring in the up-per reaches of Minjiang River,the lower reaches of the Tuojiang River,and in Qingyi River.Increases in precipitation will not fully offset runoff reductions driven by the persistent temperature rise in the basin.The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for rational decision-making and management of wa-ter resources in the Minjiang-Tuojiang River basin.关键词
第六次国际耦合模式比较计划/SWAT模型/径流/集合预估/岷沱江流域Key words
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)/Soil and Water Assessment Tool model/runoff/ensemble projection/Minjiang-Tuojiang River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
江楠,倪福全,邓玉,向军,吴明炎,康文东,岳紫莹..基于CMIP6的岷沱江流域径流预估[J].水生态学杂志,2026,47(1):25-36,12.基金项目
四川省教育厅"农村水安全"工程研究中心项目(035Z2289). （035Z2289）
