水生态学杂志2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：37-48,12.DOI:10.15928/j.1674-3075.202406070221
岩溶区径流与水文干旱预估——以赤水河上游流域为例
Runoff and Hydrological Drought Prediction in Karst Areas:A Case Study of the Upper Chishui River Basin
摘要
Abstract
In this study,we explored future trends in runoff and hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the Chishui River basin,aiming to provide a scientific basis for ecological conservation,water resource management,and flood and drought disaster prevention within the basin.Based on meteorologi-cal and hydrological data from the upper reaches of the Chishui River during 2000-2019,a Soil and Wa-ter Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was constructed.Utilizing data from five climate models of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)and incorporating the Standardized Runoff Index(SRI)and run theory,we projected changes in climate,runoff,and hydrological drought under two Shared So-cio-economic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5)from 2020 to 2060.Results show:(1)The monthly runoff rate at Maotai hydrological station achieved a coefficient of determination(R2)and Nash sensitivity index(NSE)exceeding 0.8 during both the calibration and validation periods,indicating that the SWAT model demonstrates good applicability in this basin.(2)In the future,the basin will become warmer and wetter.Under scenario SSP1-2.6,precipitation is projected to increase by approximately 10%,and a temperature rise of 0.2℃ per decade,while under scenario SSP5-8.5,the increase in precipita-tion will exceed 20%,accompanied by a temperature rise of 0.5℃ per decade.(3)The annual runoff will increase by 0.009 billion m³/a under scenario SSP1-2.6 and by 0.015 billion m³/a under scenario SSP5-8.5.Under scenario SSP1-2.6,the monthly runoff will increase during both dry and wet seasons,but not ex-ceeding 15%.Under scenario SSP5-8.5,the monthly runoff increases by 10%-20%during the wet sea-son,while decreasing by 15%-30%during the dry season.(4)Under scenario SSP1-2.6,the hydrologi-cal drought frequency decreases,with occasional droughts occurring in spring and winter,while under sce-nario SSP5-8.5 the hydrological drought frequency increases slightly,with a higher probability of droughts in both spring and winter.关键词
第六次国际耦合模式比较计划/径流预估/水文干旱预估/SWAT模型/岩溶区/赤水河上游流域Key words
Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)/runoff prediction/hydrological drought prediction/Soil and Water Assessment Tool model/karst area/upper Chishui River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
向军,倪福全,康文东,江楠,吴明炎,岳紫莹..岩溶区径流与水文干旱预估——以赤水河上游流域为例[J].水生态学杂志,2026,47(1):37-48,12.基金项目
四川省教育厅"农村水安全"工程研究中心项目(035Z2289). （035Z2289）
