水生态学杂志2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：49-64,16.DOI:10.15928/j.1674-3075.202501110001
基于遥感与集成学习的洞庭湖CO2通量估算及时空分布研究
Spatiotemporal Distribution of the CO2 Flux in Dongting Lake Based on Remote Sensing and Ensemble Learning Methods
摘要
Abstract
Lake carbon cycling plays a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle,and accurate estimation of the water-air interface CO2 flux(F-CO2)will provide technical support for assessing dynamic changes in carbon sources and sinks.In this study on Dongting Lake,water sample data collected from 104 locations during May and August 2024 was matched with remote sensing data.The performance of four base mod-els(RF,GBR,XGBoost,and SVR)and four ensemble models was then evaluated for CO2 concentration(c-CO2)inversion for Dongting Lake.On this basis,we quantitatively estimated c-CO and analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of F-CO2 in Dongting Lake.Compared to direct inversion using band com-binations,indirect inversion that includes the measured parameters Secchi depth(ZSD)and water tempera-ture(WT)improved c-CO2 inversion in Dongting Lake.The proposed multi-model ensemble approach in this study(integrating XGBoost,GBR,SVR,RF)was identified as optimal for c-CO2 inversion,achiev-ing an R2 of 0.72,MSE of 43.40 µmol/L,RMSE of 6.59 µmol/L,and MAPE of 12.61%.Compared to the best-performing base model in indirect inversion,this ensemble model improved R² by 26.32%and reduced RMSE by 36.94%,significantly enhancing estimation accuracy under complex hydrological conditions.F-CO2 in Dongting Lake exhibited significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity(P<0.001).The highest F-CO2 occurred in the eastern mainstream of East Dongting Lake[(108.70±19.63)mmol/(m2·d)]in spring and was 1.91 times that of the lowest area(West Dongting Lake:[(57.02±9.37)mmol/(m2·d)].The average values of F-CO2 in spring[(79.46±24.05)mmol/(m2·d)]and summer[(63.20±13.41)mmol/(m2·d)]were significantly higher than those in autumn[(25.92±7.19 mmol/(m2·d)]and winter[(25.71±7.73 mmol/(m2·d)],revealing the effects of hydrological and seasonal variations on lake F-CO2.Addition-ally,Dongting Lake acts as a carbon source across all seasons,but with potential for shifting to a carbon sink in certain areas during winter.关键词
湖泊CO2通量/遥感反演/机器学习/洞庭湖Key words
lake CO2 flux/remote sensing inversion/machine learning/Dongting Lake分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
邓斌,罗威,熊凯,向洪勇,官志鑫,蒋昌波,侯佳,饶涵..基于遥感与集成学习的洞庭湖CO2通量估算及时空分布研究[J].水生态学杂志,2026,47(1):49-64,16.基金项目
湖南省水利厅科技项目(XSKJ2024064-36) （XSKJ2024064-36）
湖南省科技创新计划项目(2020RC3037,20hnkj019) （2020RC3037,20hnkj019）
湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20230891,CX20220906). （CX20230891,CX20220906）
