肿瘤预防与治疗2026，Vol.39Issue(1)：28-35,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0904.2026.01.005
2011～2021年常州市膀胱癌发病趋势分析及2022～2027年变化趋势预测
Bladder Cancer Incidence in Changzhou:Trend Analysis(2011～2021)and Future Projection(2022～2027)
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the 2011～2021 trends and age-specific patterns of bladder cancer in the Changzhou cancer registry and to forecast the incidence trend for 2022～2027.Methods:Using Changzhou bladder cancer registry data(2011～2021),the average annual percent change(AAPC)with 95%CI was calculated for crude and age-standardized in-cidence rates.Linear regression was used to analyze trends in age at diagnosis,and a Gray-Markov GM(1,1)was construc-ted to predict future incidence.Results:The crude incidence rate increased from 6.04 to 9.20 per 100,000 between 2011 and 2021(AAPC=4.50%;P<0.05).Over the same pe-riod,the age-standardized rate rose from 4.33 to 5.26 per 100,000(AAPC=2.38%;P<0.05).Compared to urban areas,the AAPC was 2.03 times higher for the crude rate and 4.09 times higher for the age-standardized rate in rural areas.Age-stratified analysis revealed a significant increase in the 60～69 age group(AAPC=5.18%,P<0.05),with no sig-nificant changes observed in other age groups.The standardized mean age at diagnosis increased annually by 0.12 years from 2011 to 2021.Male incidence peaked in the 65～69 age group,preceding the female peak(70～74 age group)by 5 years.The model predicts a continuing upward trend,with the total population incidence projected to reach 12.43 per 100,000 by 2027.Conclusion:The incidence of bladder cancer in Changzhou increased continuously from 2011 to 2021,with a signifi-cantly higher growth rate in rural than in urban areas.Additionally,the peak incidence age in males was 5 years earlier than in females.Therefore,stratified screening strategies should be prioritized for high-risk groups,including rural residents,males,and the elderly population.关键词
膀胱癌/发病率/平均年度变化百分比/灰色马尔可夫模型/癌症登记Key words
Bladder cancer/Incidence/Average annual percent change(AAPC)/Gray Markov model/Cancer registry分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
丁梦珂,骆文书,徐文超,倪名扬..2011～2021年常州市膀胱癌发病趋势分析及2022～2027年变化趋势预测[J].肿瘤预防与治疗,2026,39(1):28-35,8.基金项目
This study was supported by grants from Changzhou Institute of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University(No.CPHM202304). 南京医科大学常州公共卫生高等研究院开放课题基金项目(编号:CPHM202304) （No.CPHM202304）
