水力发电2026，Vol.52Issue(2)：22-30,9.
基于降雨预报滚动修正和模型参数实时校正的城市洪涝动态预报研究
Research on Urban Flood Dynamic Forecasting Based on Rolling Correction of Rainfall Forecast and Real-time Calibration of Model Parameters
摘要
Abstract
To address the practical demand for high-precision dynamic flood forecasting in urban flood risk prevention and control,a dynamic urban flood forecasting method based on rolling correction of rainfall forecasts and real-time calibration of model parameters is proposed,in which,the measured rainfall data are used to perform rolling correction on real-time collected rainfall forecast data,and the rolling-corrected rainfall forecast data are then used as input for the urban flood model.During the flood process,the model parameters are calibrated in real time based on measured errors to drive the dynamic update of flood waterlogging process forecast results,thereby achieving dynamic improvement of flood forecasting accuracy throughout the rainfall-flood process.Taking the new campus of Zhengzhou University as the study area,the results show that the forecasting accuracy of verified waterlogging points improves dynamically over time,with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)gradually increasing from less than 0.6 to 0.95.This indicates that the dynamic urban flood forecasting method can effectively improve forecasting accuracy and meets current practical needs of urban flood prevention and control in China.关键词
城市洪涝/动态预报/降雨预报/滚动修正/参数实时校正/精度提升/纳什效率系数Key words
urban flood/dynamic forecast/rainfall forecast/rolling correction/real-time parameter correction/accuracy improvement/Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
马炳焱,郭靖,郭伟建,张磊磊,刘慧媛..基于降雨预报滚动修正和模型参数实时校正的城市洪涝动态预报研究[J].水力发电,2026,52(2):22-30,9.基金项目
中国电力建设股份有限公司2024年度核心技术攻关项目"揭榜挂帅"(E001Y240006) （E001Y240006）
中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司科研课题(KY2023-NGH-02-16) （KY2023-NGH-02-16）
