水资源保护2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：22-29,69,9.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2026.01.003
气候变化下1960-2020年长江源区水文气象要素变化趋势
Change trends of hydro-meteorological elements in the Yangtze River Source Region from 1960 to 2020 under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Based on hydrometeorological data from 1960 to 2020,this study systematically analyzed the abrupt changes and monthly-scale variations in runoff depth,precipitation,temperature,potential evapotranspiration,and snow characteristics in the Yangtze River Source Region from 1960 to 2020,employing methods such as the Pettitt non-parametric test and simple linear regression.The results showed that during 1960-2020 in the Yangtze River Source Region,the multi-year average annual runoff depth was 90 mm,which shifted from a declining trend to an increasing trend after 2004.Annual precipitation exhibited a mutation in 1997,increasing at a rate of 0.54 mm/a before the mutation and slightly decreasing thereafter.The mean annual temperature was-4.5℃,with the warming rate accelerating from 0.02℃/a before 1997 to 0.05℃/a afterward,significantly higher than before.Potential evapotranspiration showed an overall increase,with a 6%rise after the mutation.The multi-year average snow depth was 1.7 cm,showing a decreasing trend,with a rate of 0.1 cm/a.At the monthly scale,runoff depth and precipitation showed significant seasonal fluctuations,with summer accounting for over 60%of the annual contribution.Winter temperatures showed the largest increase,exhibiting a typical"cold-season amplification effect".The multi-year average aridity index was 1.8,showing a downward trend,reflecting the regional climate's transition towards humidification.The multi-year average runoff coefficient was 0.2,decreased before 2004 and then rebounded,reflecting the increased complexity of hydrological processes due to factors such as snow melting and groundwater recharge.关键词
水文气象要素/突变年份/长期趋势/干燥指数/径流系数/长江源区Key words
hydrometeorological elements/mutation year/long-term trend/aridity index/runoff coefficient/the Yangtze River Source Region引用本文复制引用
沈龙,吴南,罗煜宁,王宇昊,孙建文,王一帆,张珂..气候变化下1960-2020年长江源区水文气象要素变化趋势[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):22-29,69,9.基金项目
江苏省科技计划专项资金项目(BZ2024035) （BZ2024035）
中国南方电网云南电网有限责任公司科技项目(YNKJXM20222329) （YNKJXM20222329）
