Abstract
Objective To compare the disease burden of lung cancer in China,South Korea,and Japan from 1990 to 2021,and predict future disease trends,in order to provide reference for developing targeted lung cancer prevention and control strategies in China.Methods From the GBD 2021 data,we collected information on the incidence,prevalence,deaths,and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)cases of lung cancer in China,South Korea,and Japan from 1990 to 2021,as well as their age-standardized rates[including age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)];then,Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and its 95%CI for each age-standardized rate,in order to reflect disease burden trends;R software was used for visual analysis of each age-standardized rate;and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was employed to predict the ASPR in China,South Korea,and Japan from 2022 to 2036,in order to predict future trends in lung cancer prevalence.Results Compared with 1990,the number of new lung cancer cases in China increased by 240.2% in 2021,while that in South Korea increased by 251.4% and that in Japan increased by 131.2%.From 1990 to 2021,ASIR showed an upward trend in China and South Korea(AAPC values were 0.94% and 0.58%),while ASIR exhibited a downward trend in Japan(AAPC=-0.12%).Compared with 1990,the number of lung cancer cases in China increased by 318.0% in 2021,that in South Korea increased by 571.6%,and that in Japan increased by 178.8%.From 1990 to 2021,ASPR showed upward trend in China,South Korea and Japan(AAPC values were 1.81%,2.64% and 0.92%).Compared with 1990,lung cancer deaths in China increased by 192.7% in 2021,that in South Korea increased by 189.4%,and that in Japan increased by 115.9%.From 1990 to 2021,ASMR showed an upward trend in China(AAPC=0.38%),ASMR exhibited a downward trend in South Korea and Japan(AAPC values were-0.48% and-0.60%).Compared with 1990,lung cancer DALY in China increased by 143.8% in 2021,that in South Korea increased by 99.7%,and that in Japan increased by 57.4%.From 1990 to 2021,ASDR showed an upward trend in China(AAPC=0.06%),ASDR showed a downward trend in South Korea and Japan(AAPC values were-1.27% and-0.93%).BAPC model analysis indicates that compared with 2021,ASPR in China was projected to increase by 86.9% in 2036,that in South Korea was projected to increase by 36.0%,and that in Japan was projected to increase by 3.9%.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the burden of lung cancer differs significantly among China,South Korea,and Japan.China experiences rapid increases in new lung cancer cases,deaths,and DALY rates,while South Korea sees a rapid rise in lung cancer prevalence.In the future,lung cancer prevalence in China is projected to rise further,remaining markedly higher than that in South Korea and Japan.关键词
肺肿瘤/中国/韩国/日本/疾病负担Key words
Lung neoplasms/China/South Korea/Japan/Disease burden分类
医药卫生
