云南师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.45Issue(6)：53-62,10.DOI:10.7699/j.ynnu.ns-2025-071
曲靖市短时强降水主要流型及环境参量特征分析
Analysis of Main Flow Patterns and Environmental Parameter Characteristics of Short-duration Heavy Precipitation in Qujing City
摘要
Abstract
Based on hourly precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data in the Qujing region from 2009 to 2018,this study examines the primary flow patterns,key environmental distribution characteristics,and forecast thresholds of 245 instances of short-duration heavy precipitation.The findings indicate that short-duration heavy precipitation in Qujing exhibits 6 distinct flow patterns:low trough east-ward-moving,subtropical high peripheral,tropical depression,two-high-convergence,southern branch trough,and storm of bay of Bengal.The study of thresholds for key environmental parameters corre-sponding to 6 flow patterns show that firstly,these events require the transport of water vapor from various sources to Qujing convergence,providing sufficient moisture conditions for their occurrence.Secondly,the LI index threshold ranges from-1.7 to-3.4℃.Different weather systems require distinct initial uplift heights for convective clouds.Thirdly,short-duration heavy precipitation resulting from the low trough eastward-moving and two-high-convergence systems has a slightly lower require-ment for ambient wet air instability,with Δθse700-500 ranging between 2.2 and 2.5℃.But short-term heavy precipitation resulting from the other four types of flow patterns require high temperature and humidity in the middle and lower troposphere,with Δθse700-500 ranging between 4.6 and 6.8℃.The K index>41℃is an important indicator for forecasting short-term heavy precipitation across various weather patterns.Finally,the range of CA PE varies from 200 to 1500 J·kg-1,exhibiting a wide threshold range and indicating weak significance for short-duration heavy precipitation.关键词
短时强降水/主要流型/环境参量特征/预报阈值Key words
Short-duration heavy precipitation/Main flow patterns/Environmental parameter character-istics/Prediction threshold分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
成佳丽,尹丽云,余明勇,田梦琳..曲靖市短时强降水主要流型及环境参量特征分析[J].云南师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,45(6):53-62,10.基金项目
中国气象局预报员专项资助项目(CMAYBY2019-109) （CMAYBY2019-109）
云南省社会发展专项资助项目(202203AC100005-4) （202203AC100005-4）
云南省气象局基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划资助项目(STIAP202308). （STIAP202308）
