中国马铃薯2025，Vol.39Issue(5)：386-400,15.DOI:10.19918/j.cnki.1672-3635.2025.05.009
山西省马铃薯生产格局的时空演变及驱动因素分析
Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Potato Production Patterns in Shanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
The evolution of the potato production pattern is directly related to the allocation of agricultural resources,the resilience of food supply,and the economic transformation of major producing regions.This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal agglomeration changes and driving factors of potato production in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2023,to provide scientific support for optimizing the layout of potato production.The gravity-center migration model,spatial correlation analysis,and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of potato production agglomeration.Potato production in Shanxi Province showed the characteristics of"increasing total yield,slightly decreasing cultivation area,and rapidly rising yield per unit".From 2005 to 2023,there was significant agglomeration of both potato yield and cultivation area.The agglomeration of yield was further strengthened,while the agglomeration of cultivation area showed a weakening trend.Among them,the high-high agglomeration regions of yield were distributed in western and northern Shanxi,and the high-high agglomeration regions of cultivation area shifted westward and southward;the gravity-center of yield distribution moved westward and northward by a straight-line distance of over 40 km,while the migration range of the gravity-center of cultivation area was relatively small.The effects of driving factors on yield and cultivation area were somewhat different:yield was mainly affected by the share of agricultural output value,minimum temperature,and chemical fertilizer application rate;cultivation area was mainly affected by the share of agricultural output value,chemical fertilizer application rate,and maximum temperature.Potato production in Shanxi Province has obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics,and its influencing factors vary.Overall,the share of agricultural output value is the primary driving factor.By utilizing multiple variables,this study conducts a precise analysis of the main driving factors of potato production at the county scale.It would provide a theoretical basis for local formulating differentiated policies in Shanxi Province,thereby facilitating the development of the regional industry.关键词
马铃薯/时空演变/时空地理加权回归/集聚特征/驱动力Key words
potato/spatiotemporal evolution/geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)/agglomeration characteristic/driving force分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张蕾,侯向娟,杨三维..山西省马铃薯生产格局的时空演变及驱动因素分析[J].中国马铃薯,2025,39(5):386-400,15.基金项目
2025年度山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2025QN068) （2025QN068）
山西农业大学社会科学研究振兴工程项目(2024YB10) （2024YB10）
国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFD1901105) （2021YFD1901105）
山西省科技重大专项计划"揭榜挂帅"项目(202101140601026). （202101140601026）
