中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(11)：86-100,15.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20251107
极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响研究
THE IMPACT OF EXTREME WEATHER RISKS ON THE QUALITY OF FARMERS'INCOME
摘要
Abstract
The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events poses a severe challenge to the quality of farmers'income,and effectively addressing this challenge is of great strategic significance for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and advancing the process of Chinese-style modernization.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government,excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Xizang regions of China)in China from 2011 to 2021,the quality of farmers'income was measured,and the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers'income quality was demonstrated by the benchmark regression model,fixed effect model and spatial lag model,then the adjustment effect of agricultural economic resilience was tested by the adjustment effect model,finally,the threshold effect of agricultural innovation vitality,rural entrepreneurial vitality and digital village construction was tested by the threshold regression model.The study found that:(1)The risk of extreme weather significantly reduced farmers'income quality,and the negative impact of extreme low temperature and concentrated rainfall on farmers'income quality was greater.(2)Mechanism analysis showed that agricultural economic resilience played a negative moderating role in the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers'income quality,and agricultural innovation vitality,rural entrepreneurial vitality and digital countryside construction had a single threshold effect on the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers'income quality.(3)Heterogeneity analysis showed that in non-major grain producing areas,extreme weather risk had a more significant inhibitory effect on farmers'income quality.The ecological condition dimension and economic support dimension of agricultural economic resilience played a negative moderating role in the impact of extreme weather risks on farmers'income quality.(4)The spatial econometric analysis showed that there was a significant negative spatial spillover effect of extreme weather risk on farmers'income quality.Therefore,in order to cope with the adverse impact of extreme weather risks,efforts can be made to continuously improve the ecological conditions and economic support level,strengthen agricultural and rural innovation and entrepreneurship support and digital village construction support,accelerate the construction of inter-provincial extreme weather risk joint prevention and control mechanism,and promote the improvement of farmers'income quality in the future.关键词
极端天气风险/农民收入质量/空间溢出/创新创业活力/数字乡村建设Key words
extreme weather risk/farmers'income quality/space overflow/innovation and entrepreneurship vital-ity/digital rural construction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
秦增洋,李明亮,李锦,陈彤..极端天气风险对农民收入质量的影响研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(11):86-100,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目"我国西部农业市场培育与开放研究"(71933005) （71933005）
自治区研究生科研创新项目"新疆数字农业发展驱动机制及提升路径研究"(XJ2023G122) （XJ2023G122）
