中国蔬菜Issue(1)：22-27,6.DOI:10.19928/j.cnki.1000-6346.2026.1004
2025年蔬菜市场形势分析和2026年展望
Vegetable Market Analysis in 2025 and Outlook for 2026
摘要
Abstract
In 2025,the vegetable market exhibited an atypical fluctuation pattern against the dual backdrop of frequent meteorological disasters and a profound restructuring of the industrial structure.Overall,average wholesale prices remained at a relatively low level compared to the preceding three years.Intra-year fluctuations diverged from the traditional seasonal'M-shaped'or'W-shaped'patterns,manifesting instead as a significant deep'U-shaped'trajectory.During the first half of the year,supported by steady expansion in the acreage under cultivation and relatively mild climatic conditions,prices adhered to seasonal decline trends and reached an annual nadir in May.In the second half,however,the successive impacts of extreme summer rainstorms and flooding,sustained high temperatures during'dog days',and unseasonal strong winter cold waves induced phased gaps in supply-chain connections.This led to abnormal price surges in November and December,which remained at historical highs.On the production side,facility agriculture—accelerated by policy-driven digital and intelligent transformation—has emerged as the core pillar for urban'vegetable basket'stability,although rigid increases in labor and agricultural input costs persistently compressed profit margins.Regarding trade,China's vegetable exports demonstrated significant resilience amid complex international economic games;despite pronounced fluctuations in specific markets due to tariff policies,the trade surplus remained robust.Looking ahead to 2026,influenced by the prolonged La Niña state and the consumption pulse driven by the Spring Festival holiday,prices are anticipated to maintain high-level volatility at the beginning of the year.关键词
蔬菜/市场形势/展望Key words
vegetable/market trend/outlook引用本文复制引用
张晶,周向阳,迟亮,朱孟帅,吴建寨,刘继芳..2025年蔬菜市场形势分析和2026年展望[J].中国蔬菜,2026,(1):22-27,6.基金项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2025-09),中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2025-AII) （JBYW-AII-2025-09）
