摘要
Abstract
The continued accumulation of global greenhouse gases and escalating climate risks have made the"carbon budget"and"time window"into critical boundary conditions constraining economic and social development.Within China's policy framework of new quality productive forces as well as green and low-carbon transition,net-zero technologies—encompassing clean energy systems,industrial process reconfiguration,non-CO₂ emission reductions,and negative emissions technologies—have become the core lever for achieving the"dual carbon"goals.However,the current maturity and diffusion rates of these technologies remain insufficient to support the required decarbonization pathways.In response,this study proposes a net-zero technology economics analysis framework,emphasiz-ing"pathway optimization"under strong constraints to address climate disasters.The framework seeks to advance technological prog-ress through institutional-market synergy and to unlock both the temperature rise mitigation and economic growth benefits of technolo-gies.First,drawing on techno-economic paradigm theory,this study identifies key characteristics of the artificial orientation of technolo-gy selection and ecological civilization in the emerging technological cycle.Second,it systematically maps the spectrum of net-zero technologies and their varying maturity levels,characterizing their heterogeneous contributions to emission reduction and economic out-put.Third,building on the green Solow framework,it sets up a two-sector model—traditional versus green—to identify the public sec-tor's boundary of action and its transmission channels in investment prioritization,diffusion incentives,and competition regulation.Fourth,it proposes phased policy portfolios and dynamic correction mechanisms under uncertainty.The model results indicate that,un-der a net-zero target,prioritizing resource allocation to the green sector facilitates a mid-to long-term"emission reduction-growth"co-equilibrium.When the carbon budget tightens and technology diffusion is hindered,phased policy intervention is required to reduce dif-fusion costs and accelerate large-scale application.The study further proposes a multi-layered net-zero technology economic framework encompassing micro,macro,and cyclical perspectives,and spanning five levels:firms,markets,central government,local governments,and international governance.It recommends multi-level research on net-zero technology economics,incentives for commercializing ma-ture technologies and developing frontier innovations,improvements in green finance and government procurement mechanisms,accel-erated diffusion through antitrust enforcement and licensing openness,and active alignment with international rules to enhance gover-nance capacity.These findings provide analytical tools and policy insights for achieving net-zero goals while enabling high-quality tran-sition and growth.关键词
新质生产力/净零技术/生态文明/路径优化/两部门模型Key words
new quality productive forces/net-zero technology/ecological civilization/pathway optimization/two-sector model分类
管理科学
