摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and predict its trends from 2022 to 2030.Methods Lung cancer registration data from 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021 were collected and collated.The study calculated the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC),and age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASMRC)by age group,gender and urban-rural distribution.Joinpoint software was used to calculate annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC).Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was employed to forecast trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2030.Results From 2010 to 2021,both the ASIRC and ASMRC for lung cancer in Gansu Province showed a sustained upward trend.ASIRC rose by an av-erage of 0.85%annually(AAPC=0.85%,95%CI:-0.81%to 2.54%,P=0.283),with a 2.44%increase in urban(AAPC=2.44%,95%CI:0.71%to 4.19%,P=0.010),a 0.61%decline in rural(AAPC=-0.61%,95%CI:-4.39%to 3.31%,P=0.756);a 0.69%increase among males(AAPC=0.69%,95%CI:-0.97%to 2.38%,P=0.381),and a 1.29%increase among females(AAPC=1.29%,95%CI:-0.72%to 3.33%,P=0.184).ASMRC by an average of 1.56%annually(AAPC=1.56%,95%CI:-2.77%to 6.07%,P=0.447),with a 3.28%increase in urban(AAPC=3.28%,95%CI:-6.58%to 14.17%;P=0.529),a 2.11%decline in rural(AAPC=-2.11%,95%CI:-5.77%to 1.68%,P=0.271),a 2.30%increase among males(AAPC=2.30%,95%CI:-2.06%to 6.86%,P=0.271),and a 0.27%decline among females(AAPC=-0.27%,95%CI:-6.99%to 6.93%,P=0.939).Both ASIRC and ASMRC showed fluctuating upward trend with age across all age groups≥40 years.BAPC projections indicated that the ASIRC of lung cancer in Gansu Province would rise while ASMRC would decline during 2022 to 2030.Conclusions From 2010 to 2021,the ASIRC and ASMRC of lung cancer in Gansu Province continued to rise,with the risk of lung cancer occurrence and death among residents aged 40 and above fluctuating and increasing with age.The BAPC model predicts that by 2030,the ASIRC will persistently rise,while the ASMRC is expected to decline.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of lung cancer in order to reduce the risks of lung cancer.关键词
肺癌/发病趋势/死亡趋势/预测/甘肃Key words
Lung cancer/Incidence trend/Mortality trend/Prediction/Gansu分类
医药卫生
