中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(11)：161-173,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250620
中国新能源汽车动力电池关键矿产资源回收潜力评估
Critical mineral resource recycling potential from new energy vehicle power batteries in China
摘要
Abstract
The efficient recycling and echelon utilization of retired power batteries are essential for promoting the green and low-car-bon transformation of the new energy vehicle(NEV)industry chain,as well as for alleviating the supply-demand imbalance of critical mineral resources and establishing a closed-loop resource management system.Based on the transition of NEV consumption from"poli-cy-driven"to"market-driven,"this study constructed a predictive model for resource demand and recovery potential,calculated the de-mand and recovery potential of lithium,nickel,and cobalt under different scenarios,and comprehensively evaluated the environmental and economic benefits of multiple treatment pathways.The results showed that by 2035,NEV sales in China would reach 27.50 million units,triggering large-scale retirement of power batteries.Under the baseline scenario,echelon utilization of retired batteries would yield an energy potential of 1 287.75 GWh and generate an economic benefit of CNY 670 million in 2035.The recovery potential of lith-ium,nickel,and cobalt would reach 146 700 t,565 900 t,and 233 200 t,respectively,with the corresponding resource recovery values being CNY 94.23 billion,75.92 billion,and 47.18 billion,respectively.While the widespread application of Lithium Iron Phosphate(LFP)batteries significantly enhanced the potential for echelon utilization,they made limited contributions to critical mineral resource recovery due to the absence of nickel and cobalt.Spatially,there was a notable mismatch between the retirement volume of power batter-ies and the distribution of recycling networks,indicating an urgent need for optimization of recycling network layout.In response to these issues,this study proposes the following policy recommendations:First,the extended producer responsibility system should be im-proved and a robust data tracking and sharing platform should be established to ensure scientific management of the entire life cycle of batteries;Second,routing mechanisms based on battery health status should be promoted to ensure efficient coordination between eche-lon and regenerative utilization;Third,key technology R&D and cross-departmental collaboration should be strengthened to promote re-cycling technology and industrial innovation and upgrading;Fourth,economic incentives and policy support systems should be im-proved to promote the standardization and scaling of the recycling industry.The findings of this study provide scientific evidence and strategic guidance for optimizing and implementing policies for circular utilization of power battery resources in China.关键词
新能源汽车/动力电池/关键矿产/梯次利用/回收潜力Key words
new energy vehicle/power battery/critical mineral/echelon utilization/recycling potential分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
栗洋,刘妍慧..中国新能源汽车动力电池关键矿产资源回收潜力评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(11):161-173,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于生产者责任延伸制度的汽车产业绿色发展研究:国际经验与中国策略"(批准号:71804195) （批准号:71804195）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"价值共创视角下再生资源产业高质量发展的驱动机制及路径优化研究"(批准号:22YJC790068). （批准号:22YJC790068）
