作物学报2026，Vol.52Issue(2)：590-602,13.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1006.2026.54092
基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响
Modeling the effects of climate change on cotton phenology and potential yield in Xinjiang based on the DSSAT model
摘要
Abstract
As China's most important cotton production base,Xinjiang plays a crucial role in safeguarding national agricultural and economic security.To quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on cotton growth in this region,daily meteorological data(1990-2020)from 14 agro-meteorological observation stations and 65 meteorological stations,along with cotton growth observation records,were used to calibrate and validate the DSSAT crop model.The validated model was then employed to analyze the spatio-temporal variations in cotton phenology and potential yield across Xinjiang.Additionally,the contributions of key climatic factors were examined using the Mann-Kendall trend test and detrending analysis.The results showed that:(1)For calibration(and valida-tion),the absolute relative errors between simulated and observed values for sowing-flowering date,sowing-maturity date,and yield were 1.80%(1.51%),0.85%(1.18%),and 5.38%(5.44%),respectively,with normalized root mean square errors of 9.56%(14.06%),9.71%(11.50%),and 11.30%(11.34%),indicating good model performance.(2)Under fixed sowing dates and cultivar conditions,the durations of sowing-flowering and sowing-maturity significantly decreased(P<0.05)at rates of 1.26 d 10a-1 and 2.54 d 10a-1,respectively,from 1990 to 2020,while potential yield significantly increased at a rate of 159.61 kg hm-2 10a-1.(3)Spatial analysis revealed that changes in cotton phenology and yield were significant at most stations(P<0.05),with the proportions of stations showing significant or highly significant trends being 33.8%(55.4%)for sowing-flowering,24.76%(64.6%)for sowing-maturity,and 29.2%(50.8%)for potential yield.The relative contributions of climatic factors to potential yield were ranked as follows:daily solar radiation>maximum temperature>precipitation>minimum temperature.Overall,the DSSAT model effectively simulated cotton growth,development,and yield in Xinjiang,and climate change was found to have a significant impact on cotton phenology and potential yield.These findings provide valuable data support and a theoretical basis for crop model applications,yield forecasting,and climate impact assessments in Xinjiang and similar agro-ecological regions.关键词
新疆棉花/DSSAT模型/气候变化/物候期/产量Key words
Xinjiang cotton/DSSAT model/climate change/phenology/yield引用本文复制引用
周琦翔,朱艳,汪楚博,朱柏林,李俊博,宋利兵..基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对新疆棉花物候期及产量的影响[J].作物学报,2026,52(2):590-602,13.基金项目
本研究由国家自然科学基金项目(52169011),新疆生产建设兵团科技计划项目(2023CB010),乡村振兴产业发展科技行动项目(2024NC068)和自治区天池英才青年博士人才项目资助.This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52169011),the Science and Technology Program of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(2023CB010),the Rural Revitalization Industrial Development Science and Technology Action Project(2024NC068),and the"Tianchi Talents"Young Doctor Program of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Project awarded to Dr.). （52169011）
