安全、健康和环境2026，Vol.26Issue(1)：16-21,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7932.2026.01.003
基于CCA与可靠性理论的非常规设备失效概率综合评估
CCA and Comprehensive Reliability Assessment for Failure Probability of Unconventional Petrochemical Equipment
摘要
Abstract
In view of the deficiencies of Cause-Consequence Analysis(CCA)in system definition,logical construction and data sources,three principles of"clear type of initial event,assessable severity of conse-quences,and quantifiable possibility of occurrence"were proposed.A standardized process for personnel and e-quipment reliability data was established.By integrating the system reliability theory,a structured,comprehen-sive risk assessment framework was constructed.Taking motor overheating as an example for case application,the results show that:This method can effectively assess the failure probability of unconventional equipment(re-ferring to equipment lacking sufficient historical failure data or coverage by a standard failure probability data-base).The calculated probability of fire caused by the failure of all safety measures was 1.4×10-6 a-1.The magnitude is in line with industry standard reference values.This provides a systematic and reproducible assess-ment solution,suitable for estimating the failure probability of unconventional equipment lacking historical data.关键词
石化设备/失效概率/可靠性理论/原因-后果分析(CCA)/风险评估Key words
petrochemical equipment/failure probability/reliability theory/Cause-Consequence Analysis(CCA)/risk assessment分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
辛保泉,党文义,葛春涛,周志国,凌晓东..基于CCA与可靠性理论的非常规设备失效概率综合评估[J].安全、健康和环境,2026,26(1):16-21,6.基金项目
中国石化科技部项目(323060),二氧化碳输送过程安全风险评估与防控技术研究. （323060）
