草地学报2026，Vol.34Issue(2)：424-436,13.DOI:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.02.005
高温干旱复合事件对晋北饲用燕麦生产的影响
Effects of Compound Drought and Hot Events on the Forage Oats Production of Northern Shanxi
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the impact of compound drought and hot events(CH)on the productivity and phenol-ogy of forage oats(Avena sativa L.)in Shuozhou,and to explore how the accumulated temperature require-ments during the growth period of forage oats should be adjusted for coping with such events,this study utilized validated APSIM(Agricultural Production System sIMulator)to conduct simulation analysis at six sites in Shuozhou within baseline and future scenarios in combination with climate model.Based on APSIM model vali-dation(2023 aboveground biomass Normalized Root Mean Square Erro:9.19%,2022-2023 soil moisture NRMSE:25.69%)and scenario simulations,the results indicate that future climatic hazards in Northern Shanxi will be intensified.By the 2070s,the frequency,duration,and intensity of CH would generally increase with a decreasing trend from east to west.This led to a reduction in forage oat yield of 2046.2 kg·hm-2 during CH-occurring years compared to the multi-year average.Furthermore,the durations from emergence to initial flowering and from initial flowering to full flowering were prolonged by 0.97 days and 0.26 days,respectively.However,optimizing cultivar selection based on site-specific climate conditions could increase forage yield by 1.95%to 23.65%.The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for forage oats production to cope with CH,and offer some guidance for breeding strategy and field management of forage oats in the future.关键词
APSIM/饲用燕麦/高温干旱复合事件/气候变化Key words
APSIM/Forage oats/Compound drought and hot event/Climate change分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
何世佳,成华强,刘鹏,杨轩..高温干旱复合事件对晋北饲用燕麦生产的影响[J].草地学报,2026,34(2):424-436,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(32001404) （32001404）
山西农业大学科技创新基金项目(2020BQ26)资助 （2020BQ26）
