东南大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.56Issue(1)：30-39,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2026.01.004
基于嵌套Copula的台风-浪-流三维联合概率建模
Joint probabilistic modelling of typhoon wind,wave,and current based on nested Copula
摘要
Abstract
To address the problem of limited research on the correlation characterization and joint probability modelling of the typhoon wind speed,significant wave height,and current speed,a three-dimensional joint probability modelling method of typhoon wind,wave,and current based on the Archimedean nested Copula was proposed.The applicability and accuracy of this method was validated in multivariate joint modelling.Taking two typical offshore sites in the Pearl River Delta of China as case studies,a physics-based coupled nu-merical model based on SWAN(simulating waves nearshore)+ADCIRC(advanced circulation model)was es-tablished,and the extreme value samples from 1988 to 2023 were obtained.The results show that there are strong correlations among the typhoon mean wind speed,significant wave height,and sea surface depth-averaged current speed.The linear correlation coefficient between the typhoon mean wind speed and sig-nificant wave height is the largest,up to 0.960 5.The dependence structure of the extreme of typhoon wind,wave,and current and its optimal nested Copula model exhibit significant site-specific characteristics,and the shape of the environmental contours varies notably with the site.The companion values of the dominate vari-ables on the environmental contours are sensitive,and the sea surface depth-averaged current speed shows the highest variability of up to 40%.关键词
台风-浪-流/SWAN+ADCIRC/嵌套Copula/联合概率建模/环境等值面Key words
typhoon wind,wave,and current/SWAN(simulating waves nearshore)+ADCIRC(advanced circulation model)/nested Copula/joint probabilistic modelling/environmental contour分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
戴靠山,程浩,张元博,盛超..基于嵌套Copula的台风-浪-流三维联合概率建模[J].东南大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,56(1):30-39,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52278512,52508566) （52278512,52508566）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2025ZNSFSC1290) （2025ZNSFSC1290）
四川省科技计划资助项目(2025ZNSFSC1290) （2025ZNSFSC1290）
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(YJ202470) （YJ202470）
青岛市海洋产业关键技术攻关资助项目(2511gjgg50hy). （2511gjgg50hy）
