航空工程进展2026，Vol.17Issue(1)：72-80,89,10.DOI:10.16615/j.cnki.1674-8190.2026.01.07
基于STPA和模糊贝叶斯网络的大型无人驾驶航空器运行风险分析
Operational risk analysis of large unmanned aerial vehicles based on STPA and fuzzy Bayesian networks
张子昂 1张晓全1
作者信息
- 1. 中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The system theory process analysis(STPA)method used to identify the operational risk factors,which is in the qualitative analysis stage,and can not accurately analyze the impact of each factor on system safety.In order to reduce the risk of accidents during the operation of large unmanned aerial vehicles,the main roles,respon-sibilities and scenarios in the operational process are analyzed.The system theory process analysis method is used to construct a control feedback structure to identify risk factors.Based on the correlation between factors,the Bayes-ian network(BN)is constructed,and the GeNIe software is used to carry out the forward causal inference on the risk probability,and the key factors are determined through reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis and impact inten-sity analysis.The results show that control failure is the most critical factor leading to accidents.Navigation system failure,bad weather,and battery failure are highly sensitive factors,and the analysis results obtained in this paper can provide the basis for the prevention and control of large-scale unmanned aircraft operation risks.关键词
无人驾驶航空器/城市空中交通/风险分析/系统理论过程分析/贝叶斯网络Key words
unmanned aerial vehicle/urban air mobility/risk analysis/system theoretic process analysis/Bayesian network分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
张子昂,张晓全..基于STPA和模糊贝叶斯网络的大型无人驾驶航空器运行风险分析[J].航空工程进展,2026,17(1):72-80,89,10.
