气象2026，Vol.52Issue(1)：105-118,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.120901
2025年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析
Characteristics and Causes of Climate Anomalies over China in Summer 2025
摘要
Abstract
During the summer of 2025,the rainfall belt in the central and eastern regions of China was mainly situated in the northern part.Precipitation across north-central North China,central and southern Inner Mongolia,and northern Shaanxi exceeded the climatological mean amount by 50％to 200％,result-ing in severe flooding and related disasters.The rainy season in eastern China exhibited a delayed onset,followed by an early withdrawal.In North China,the onset timing,duration,and accumulated precipita-tion of the rainy season all broke historical records.The excessive precipitation was primarily driven by the pronounced northward displacement of western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the more strength-ened East Asian summer monsoon.In addition,intraseasonal variations in the East Asian atmospheric cir-culation substantially modulated the spatial pattern of monthly precipitation anomalies.Among these influ-ences,anomalous Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)activity served as a key regulator of intraseasonal circulation variability.In June,frequent Northeast cold vortex activity,combined with a stronger and northward-migrating WPSH,triggered an earlier onset and prolonged duration of the Meiyu season in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River(Jianghuai)Basin,leading to significantly above-normal precipitation in the Meiyu region.In July,persistent MJO convection from the Maritime Continent to the western Pacific subtropical region promoted anomalous typhoon genesis and further northward shift of the WPSH over the northwestern Pacific.As a result,the main rainfall belt was located in the northern part of North China to Hetao Region,the southern part of South China and the southeast coast,resulting in severe typhoon rain and floods.In August,the MJO activity was enhanced in the African-Indian Ocean Region,favoring the even stronger,westward-extending and southward-moving WPSH,further increasing the rainfall amount in the areas north of the Yangtze River Basin.关键词
华北雨季/西太平洋副热带高压/东亚夏季风/热带大气季节内振荡/台风Key words
North China rainy season/western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)/East Asian summer monsoon/Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)/typhoon分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
赵俊虎,高辉..2025年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析[J].气象,2026,52(1):105-118,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3013100)、国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2442207、U2342211)、山西省基础研究计划联合资助项目(气象)(202403011232004)、中国气象局气候预测重点创新团队(CMA2023ZD03)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J025)和国家自然科学基金项目(42075017、41875093)共同资助 （2024YFC3013100）
