人民黄河2026，Vol.48Issue(2)：28-34,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.02.005
基于2030年碳减排目标的山东省碳排放权分配研究
Research on Carbon Emission Rights Allocation in Shandong Province Based on 2030 Carbon Emission Reduction Targets
摘要
Abstract
In order to provide a scientific basis for Shandong Province and its municipalities to formulate scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policies and carbon peak action plans,two emission reduction scenarios of basic emission reduction and autonomous emis-sion reduction were set based on the national carbon emission intensity reduction target in 2030.The carbon emissions of Shandong Province and its municipalities were estimated for the period of 2022-2030.Taking into account the principles and indicators of fairness,efficiency and feasibility,the carbon emission rights allocation model and scheme of Shandong Province were constructed,and the carbon emission quo-tas of various cities were estimated from 2022 to 2030.The results show that:a)Under the two forecast scenarios,the total carbon emissions in Shandong Province still show a slow growth trend,and the peak inflection point has not yet been revealed.b)The 16 cities in Shandong Province have obvious preference for the allocation principle,and the carbon emission rights obtained under the corresponding preference principle scheme are the largest.c)The comprehensive preference scheme is the best carbon emission allocation scheme that is more accepta-ble to the 16 cities in the near future,and it can better balance the interests and development demands among the cities.d)Based on the preferred comprehensive allocation scheme,the cities with the highest overall carbon emission quotas from 2022 to 2030 are Heze,Linyi,and Jining,while the cities with the lowest quotas are Dongying,Rizhao,and Zibo.In summary,the following recommendations are pro-posed:formulate a certain elasticity of the peak timetable based on the average annual carbon emission growth rate of each city;fully explore the energy saving and emission reduction potentials of each city and accelerate the optimization of the energy structure;and vigorously culti-vate green and low-carbon new quality productive forces with the orientation of high-quality development.关键词
碳减排目标/碳排放权/市域尺度/山东省Key words
carbon emission reduction target/carbon emission rights/city scale/Shandong Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王玉梅,丁俊新,于会录,孙海燕,秦伟山..基于2030年碳减排目标的山东省碳排放权分配研究[J].人民黄河,2026,48(2):28-34,7.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2021MG040) （ZR2021MG040）
山东省高校青年创新团队项目(2021RW042) （2021RW042）
