首都经济贸易大学学报2026，Vol.28Issue(1)：63-74,12.DOI:10.13504/j.cnki.issn1008-2700.2026.01.006
地方政府债务、数字经济与城市经济韧性
Local Government Debt,Digital Economy,and Urban Economic Resilience
摘要
Abstract
Amid the critical juncture of profound global economic restructuring and domestic economic trans-formation and upgrading,urban economic resilience has emerged as the core pillar for withstanding external shocks and achieving high-quality development.Meanwhile,the fiscal risks stemming from the expansion of local govern-ment debt have become a major bottleneck constraining the enhancement of urban economic resilience.The rise of the digital economy offers a new pathway to resolve this dilemma. Based on panel data from 281 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2015 to 2022,this study employs a double machine learning model under stacked processing to systematically investigate the causal effects of local government debt on urban economic resilience.It further incorporates the digital economy to analyze their synergis-tic moderation mechanism.The findings reveal that local government debt expansion significantly weakens urban e-conomic resilience.This conclusion remains robust after robustness tests,including instrumental variable treat-ment,sample adjustment,and variable substitution.Interaction effect analysis indicates that the digital economy can significantly mitigate the negative impact of local government debt on economic resilience.On one hand,the digital economy leverages big data analytics to precisely identify high-resilience industries,optimize debt capital al-location,and alleviate resource misallocation.On the other hand,blockchain technology enables transparent man-agement throughout the debt lifecycle,while large language models can predict debt default transmission pathways. Threshold effect analysis confirms the nonlinear nature of the digital economy's synergistic effects.Results from a panel threshold model using digital economy level as the threshold variable reveal a dual threshold relationship:When the digital economy is low,local government debt exerts a greater negative impact on urban economic resili-ence.When the digital economy surpasses the first threshold,the negative impact coefficient of debt decreases,and the buffering effect of the digital economy begins to emerge.After the digital economy surpasses the second thresh-old,the debt's impact on resilience shifts from negative to positive. The conclusions offer new theoretical insights and empirical evidence for enhancing urban economic resilience and promoting coordinated regional development from the perspective of synergistic debt management and digital empowerment.Accordingly,it recommends:(1)establishing a dynamic management system for local government debt that links debt scale to urban economic resilience targets;(2)strengthening synergistic empowerment between digital economy and debt policies and leveraging digital technology to enhance debt management efficiency and cap-ital utilization;(3)implementing differentiated regional strategies by tailoring policies to each locality's stage of digital economic development and debt-bearing capacity;and(4)providing crucial empirical evidence and deci-sion-making references for balancing debt risks with resilience enhancement to achieve high-quality urban economic development.关键词
地方政府债务/数字经济/城市经济韧性/双重机器学习/交互效应Key words
local government debt/digital economy/urban economic resilience/double machine learning/in-teraction effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王文军,傅晨辉..地方政府债务、数字经济与城市经济韧性[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2026,28(1):63-74,12.基金项目
陕西省社会科学基金年度项目"数智技术助力陕西省生态韧性提升的驱动机制与实现路径研究"(2025D037) （2025D037）
榆林市科技计划项目"碳达峰碳中和目标下的榆林市产业转型发展研究"(2023-CXY-90) （2023-CXY-90）
