生态学报2026，Vol.46Issue(2)：663-676,14.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202504281033
气候变化对海洋生态系统的风险评估
Climate change risk assessment for marine ecosystems:progress,challenges,and future perspectives
摘要
Abstract
Climate change was altering marine ecosystems at an unprecedented rate,posing significant threats to global marine biodiversity and ecological security.As the dominant paradigm for global climate risk assessment,the IPCC climate framework faced significant challenges in marine ecosystems applications.These challenges included a disconnect between theory and practice,which often hindered the operationalization of its core concepts in specific marine contexts;ambiguities in conceptual indicators;and limited methodological applicability.Adopting the IPCC framework,this study traced the theoretical evolution from climate vulnerability to climate risk through three stages:early exploration,framework development,and systematic integration.It systematically reviewed the application of these theories in marine science within the context of international climate governance to provide a comprehensive overview of the field's progression.Through a bibliometric analysis of 101 marine-related studies published between 1998 and 2024,this study categorized current research themes into theoretical frameworks and practical assessments.Centered on the three core dimensions of hazard,exposure,and vulnerability,we established a hierarchical structure including dimension,primary indicator and secondary indicator for climate risk assessment indicators in marine ecosystems,providing an organized inventory for future research.We revealed the different levels of indicator preferences within the three core dimensions based on the frequency of indicator occurrences,thereby highlighting areas of intense research focus alongside those potentially neglected.Concurrently,this study summarized the characteristics of three mainstream methods for assessing climate vulnerability and risk.This study revealed that the application of the IPCC climate risk framework to marine ecosystems exhibits a significant lag,especially when compared to its uptake in terrestrial systems.Comprehensive risk assessments were predominantly concentrated on fisheries,leaving a notable gap in the evaluation of other critical ecosystems or regions such as coral reefs,mangroves,and polar regions.Furthermore,quantitative research on ecological adaptive capacity remains underdeveloped,a limitation that severely hinders proactive management and conservation efforts.This study proposed that future research should prioritize developing a collaborative hazard-exposure-vulnerability assessment framework,emphasizing dynamic quantification of marine adaptive capacity,and thoroughly analyzing nonlinear interactions among climate risk factors,cascading effects in marine organisms,and cross-system feedbacks,as these dynamics can lead to unexpected and amplified ecological responses.Special attention was warranted for strengthening adaptive practices in China's marine integrated observation and intelligent assessment technologies.These findings enriched the theoretical foundation of marine climate risk.It provided a theoretical basis and practical reference for building robust and precise risk assessment frameworks.关键词
气候变化/适应能力/海洋生态系统/暴露/IPCC框架/气候脆弱性/气候风险Key words
climate change/adaptive capacity/marine ecosystem/exposure/IPCC framework/climate vulnerability/climate risk引用本文复制引用
张典,葛飞扬,奉龄洋,方秦华,陈彬,马志远,程兰,赵子睿,阚志毅,俞炜炜..气候变化对海洋生态系统的风险评估[J].生态学报,2026,46(2):663-676,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFF0802203) （2022YFF0802203）
