生态学报2026，Vol.46Issue(2)：721-741,21.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202502240383
1990-2023年黄河三角洲生态系统韧性演变特征及其突变机制
Evolution characteristics and catastrophe mechanisms of ecosystem resilience in the Yellow River Delta from 1990 to 2023
摘要
Abstract
Under the dual influence of global climate change and human activities,the resilience of estuarine and coastal ecosystems is highly vulnerable and complex,making them prone to catastrophic shifts.Research on early warning signals and catastrophe mechanisms is of great significance for enhancing the resilience of estuarine and coastal regions and ensuring ecological security.Taking the Yellow River Delta as the study area,this research constructed a resilience evaluation system based on ecosystem services and catastrophe progression theory,and analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem resilience from 1990 to 2023.By combining the Mann-Kendall mutation test and sliding t-test,early warning signals of resilience tipping points were identified.Furthermore,nonlinear regression analysis was employed to explore the influencing factors and driving mechanisms of resilience transitions.The findings revealed that:(1)The ecosystem resilience of the Yellow River Delta experienced a"V-shaped"catastrophic shift between 2008 and 2017,with resilience reaching its lowest point in 2011 before gradually recovering and stabilizing by 2017.This resilience catastrophe could potentially have been detected earlier during the phase of"gradual and slight decline in resilience";(2)Spatially,areas prone to resilience catastrophes were mainly located in the northeastern oil fields,ports,and central residential zones,followed by aquaculture ponds and salt fields in the north and southeast,as well as agricultural lands in the central-west.In contrast,coastal wetlands and forest-grassland belts in the central-north and central-east exhibited higher resilience;(3)The resilience catastrophe in the Yellow River Delta was jointly driven by human activities and natural dynamics:cultivated land expansion and agro-fishery development stimulated economic growth but triggered resource depletion and pollution.Compounded by habitat degradation from unsustainable exploitation of forestlands,grasslands,and wetlands,these cumulative pressures ultimately pushed the resilience beyond its critical threshold.The results provided important theoretical support for enhancing ecosystem resilience and managing catastrophe risks in the Yellow River Delta and other estuarine and coastal regions.关键词
黄河三角洲/生态系统服务/韧性评价/生态系统突变/早期预警信号Key words
Yellow River Delta/ecosystem services/resilience assessment/ecosystem catastrophe/early warning signals引用本文复制引用
管青春,周旭,刘黎明,任国平..1990-2023年黄河三角洲生态系统韧性演变特征及其突变机制[J].生态学报,2026,46(2):721-741,21.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42476246) （42476246）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42106215) （42106215）
山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2021QD064) （ZR2021QD064）
中国石油大学(华东)自主创新项目(22CX06033A) （华东）
