中国动物检疫2026，Vol.43Issue(1)：12-16,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-944X.2026.01.003
陕西省宝鸡市某县奶山羊流产风险因素分析
Risk Factors Analysis for Dairy Goat Abortion in a County of Baoji City,Shaanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
In order to identify risk factors for dairy goat abortion in a county of Baoji City,a case group and a control group were selected at a 1∶1 ratio using a case-control study method based on surveillance data reported by the county from 2023 to 2024.A questionnaire survey was conducted on 143 species in 10 towns of the country,followed by univariate analysis on 13 risk factors related to introduction,feeding management,diagnosis and treatment,etc,and multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis on the factors associated with abortion.A Logistic regression equation was constructed to calculate the predictive probability of the model and to establish a ROC curve.After analyzing the risk factors against the outcome variable"whether there was any occurrence of abortion",it was found that"whether there was temperature stress"(OR=5.915,95％CI:3.118-10.236)and"whether there was fighting or crowding"(OR=3.326,95％CI:1.254-12.393)were statistically significant with dairy goat abortion.The regression model presented goodness of fit,with an area under the ROC curve of 0.894(95％CI:0.781-0.925),indicating that the prediction performance of the model was consistent with what it was expected.In conclusion,temperature stress and fighting/crowding within a herd were considered as major risk factors leading to dairy goat abortion in the region.Farms/households were recommended to control density of farming,to prepare thermal insulation for housings,and thereby to reduce any occurrence of dairy goat abortion.关键词
流产/风险因素/奶山羊/陕西Key words
abortion/risk factor/dairy goat/Shaanxi分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
贾培龙,孙明军,刘平,陈跃飞,陈峰,王盈盈,刁攀,吕烨,赵合平,陈敏艳,胡晗,冉红志,谢印乾,史冰君,韦欣捷,张培培,孙翔翔..陕西省宝鸡市某县奶山羊流产风险因素分析[J].中国动物检疫,2026,43(1):12-16,5.基金项目
中国兽医现场流行病学培训项目(CFETPV) （CFETPV）
