中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(12)：73-84,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20251021
制造业数字化转型对出口隐含碳排放的影响
Impact of digital transformation in the manufacturing industry on embodied carbon emissions in exports:empirical evidence from OECD countries
摘要
Abstract
Digital transformation in the manufacturing industry provides a significant opportunity for promoting green and low-carbon trade.Based on the dual dimensions of total embodied carbon emissions and intensity in exports,this study systematically examined how digital transformation in the manufacturing industry affected embodied carbon emissions in exports by taking the manufacturing sectors of OECD countries as the research subjects.The results showed that:① There existed a significant inverted U-shaped relation-ship between digital transformation in the manufacturing industry and the total embodied carbon emissions in exports,while digital transformation consistently produced significant reduction effects on the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in exports.This conclu-sion remained robust after conducting various robustness checks.② Mechanism tests revealed that digital transformation raised total embodied carbon emissions in exports through scale expansion,technological progress,and trade structure optimization effects,while ef-fectively reducing the intensity of carbon emissions.③ Heterogeneity analysis indicated that,at the industry level,low-digital-intensive manufacturing displayed a steeper inverted U-shaped curve and required a higher level of digital transformation to reach the turning point,and showed a stronger reduction in the intensity of embodied carbon emissions in exports.At the national level,countries with lower economic development levels reached the turning point of total embodied carbon emissions in exports earlier and exhibited more pronounced intensity-reduction effects of digital transformation.In contrast,countries with higher economic development levels demon-strated stronger total emission reduction effects after surpassing the turning point,but their digital transformation showed no significant impact on the intensity of embodied carbon emission in exports.In light of these findings,governments should adopt a balanced ap-proach to both absolute and relative carbon reduction,formulate phased and targeted carbon reduction policies,and actively leverage economies of scale,technological progress,and trade structure optimization to reduce embodied carbon emissions in exports.Additional-ly,differentiated industry-level and national-level policies should be developed based on varying levels of digital intensity in manufac-turing and economic development across countries in order to more effectively leverage the carbon reduction potential of manufacturing digital transformation.This study offers theoretical insights and policy implications for enhancing the synergy between the low-carbon transformation of exports in the manufacturing industry and global climate governance.关键词
数字化转型/出口隐含碳排放量/出口隐含碳排放强度/制造业Key words
digital transformation/embodied carbon emissions in exports/intensity of embodied carbon emissions in exports/manufac-turing industry分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
黄娟,朱梦宵,呼万丽..制造业数字化转型对出口隐含碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(12):73-84,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"'双碳'目标下制造业中间品贸易的碳减排传导机制与协同政策研究"(批准号:22BJY242). （批准号:22BJY242）
