中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(12)：97-114,18.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250322
气候变化对商业银行贷款风险的影响机制与反馈效应:理论解析与中国证据
Impact mechanisms and feedback effects of climate change on commercial banks'lending risks:theoretical analysis and Chinese evidence
摘要
Abstract
The growing impact of climate change on the global economy and finance has become an important risk source for the bank-ing sector.A comprehensive assessment of the effects and mechanisms of climate change on the lending risks of Chinese commercial banks is of great significance for identifying and preventing climate risks.Using dynamic optimal programming,a static model,and liter-ature analysis,this study theoretically explored the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on commercial banks'lending risks,analyzed climate change and risk levels from multiple dimensions of climate element fluctuation,climate physical risk index,and carbon emission intensity,and empirically examined the direct impact,heterogenous features,transmission paths,and feedback effects of climate change on lending risks using data from 220 commercial banks and 1 124 A-share listed non-financial firms in China from 2005 to 2023.The findings showed that:① Rising temperature fluctuations and climate risk levels significantly increased commercial banks'non-performing loan(NPL)ratios and exhibited heterogeneity across bank types and climate change degrees.Large state-owned banks'lending risks were most affected by climate change,and commercial banks in regions with higher carbon emissions also experi-enced greater NPL levels.② At the firm level,climate change enhanced commercial banks'lending risks through the channels of high-er costs and lower revenues for debtors.③ At the bank level,temperature fluctuations and climate physical risks,especially extreme temperatures,led to a relative oversupply of loans,relatively lower interest rates,depreciation of collateral assets,and declines in loan provision ratios and capital adequacy ratios,which further exacerbated commercial banks'NPL ratios.④ Commercial banks primarily reduced loan supply and increased lending rates to mitigate the positive impact of climate change on lending risks.Accordingly,this study proposes the following policy recommendations:strengthening the identification and quantification of climate change-related risks,implementing differentiated supervision,reinforcing the monitoring of lending entities and processes,and formulating targeted and diversified risk management measures.This study provides methodology and conceptual references and a decision-making basis for commercial banks to quantitatively assess and respond to climate risks and transmission mechanisms rooted in their lending business.关键词
商业银行/贷款风险/气候变化/反馈效应/物理风险/转型风险Key words
commercial bank/lending risk/climate change/feedback effect/physical risk/transition risk分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
范文娜,王锋,张豪..气候变化对商业银行贷款风险的影响机制与反馈效应:理论解析与中国证据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(12):97-114,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"多尺度异质性下城市群降碳减污的协同机理与优化路径研究"(批准号:72473133) （批准号:72473133）
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"减污降碳进程中的能源安全评估、预警与保障策略研究"(批准号:23YJA790076) （批准号:23YJA790076）
江苏省社会科学基金重点项目"多时空尺度视角下江苏高质量发展水平的测度、驱动机制及提升路径研究"(批准号:22EYA005) （批准号:22EYA005）
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目"时空效应下长三角产业一体化高质量发展评价与提升路径研究"(批准号:2021SJZDA022). （批准号:2021SJZDA022）
