中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(12)：143-153,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250636
极端干旱事件如何影响农户气候适应性策略
How extreme drought events affect farmers'climate adaptation strategies:the moder-ating role of government information dissemination
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global climate warming,agricultural production systems have been confronting unprecedented chal-lenges,with extreme drought events induced by climate change posing particularly severe threats to food security,farmers'livelihoods,and the sustainable development of rural economies.As the micro-level actors in agricultural production,farmers rely on climate adapta-tion strategies as a critical means of response;in the information era,access to accurate,effective,and timely climate information has been a key prerequisite for enhancing the adoption of such strategies.As the principal institution for agricultural science and technolo-gy communication,the government can enhance farmers'risk perception and response capacity through standardized information re-lease and multi-channel dissemination.Drawing on micro-survey data collected from 786 corn-growing farmers in Shaanxi Province,this study employed a Probit model combined with moderating effect models to systematically investigate the driving effects of extreme drought events on farmers'adoption of climate adaptation strategies.It further revealed the moderating role of diverse government infor-mation dissemination methods.The results showed that:① Extreme drought events significantly promoted farmers'adoption of climate adaptation strategies.Specifically,the higher the frequency of extreme drought events and the larger the affected area,the greater the likelihood that farmers adopted such strategies.Robustness checks confirmed the reliability of these conclusions.② Government infor-mation dissemination exerted a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between extreme drought events and farmers'climate adaptation strategies,and farmers who accessed modern information dissemination channels were more inclined to adopt these strategies than those relying on traditional channels.Accordingly,the study recommends continuously scaling up the promotion of water-saving irrigation,moisture conservation,and other drought adaptation technologies;improving the service efficiency of grassroots agri-cultural extension systems;building a multi-channel,precision early warning network;and providing targeted support for elderly farm-ers in coping with drought.关键词
极端干旱事件/政府信息传播/传统信息传播/现代信息传播/气候适应性策略Key words
extreme drought event/government information dissemination/traditional information dissemination/modern information dissemination/climate adaptation strategy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈苏,白云天,穆永清,毛慧..极端干旱事件如何影响农户气候适应性策略[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(12):143-153,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"农业社会化服务促进生产绿色转型的机制与对策研究"(23&ZD110) （23&ZD110）
国家自然科学基金地区项目"南方稻作低碳生产转型的农户响应、激励机制与政策优化研究"(批准号:72463010)"南方多熟制粮区小农户化肥减量化行为及干预效果的实证研究"(批准号:72063014) （批准号:72463010）
国家自然科学基金青年项目"黄河流域农户水土保持技术采用行为的干预机制与政策优化研究"(批准号:72103115). （批准号:72103115）
