中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(12)：154-166,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250622
能源结构、气候治理与区域经济增长
Energy structure,climate governance,and regional economic growth
摘要
Abstract
In the context of the continuously deepening process of global climate governance,promoting the clean and low-carbon ener-gy transition is not only an essential path to building a modern energy system but also an intrinsic requirement for achieving the"dual carbon"goals.However,the long-standing high-carbon dependency of the energy systems and industrial structures determines that this transition is often accompanied by substantial socioeconomic costs and poses potential constraints on regional economic growth.This study first developed a dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating fossil fuels and renewable energy substitution mechanisms to theoretically elucidate the inherent logic through which a high-carbon energy structure affected regional economic growth under tighten-ing climate governance constraints.Building on this foundation,this study used the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment and employed a generalized difference-in-differences model,based on panel data from 288 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2022,to empirically examine the impact of energy structure on regional economic growth under strengthened climate targets.The study found that:① The strengthening of global climate targets significantly exacerbated the pressure on regional economic growth induced by high-carbon energy structures.Specifically,after the signing of the Paris Agreement,cities with a higher proportion of fossil fuel consumption experienced greater pressure on their economic growth.② Mechanism analysis indicated that this growth pressure was transmitted through reduced factor input scale,weakened industrial competitiveness,and the crowding-out effects of environmental regulations.③ After the signing of the Paris Agreement,the growth pressure induced by high-carbon energy structures was more pronounced in old industrial base cities,eastern regions,and cities with higher level of electrification.④ Further analysis revealed that enhanced green finance,digital technology empowerment,and optimized green industry market access were effec-tive strategies to alleviate this pressure.This study demonstrated that,within the global climate governance framework,regional energy structures had shifted from traditional static factor endowments to dynamic constraints that shaped long-term economic growth paths.These findings contribute to a deeper theoretical understanding of the dynamic equilibrium relationship in energy-economy systems and provide crucial empirical evidence for advancing energy transition and green growth in the new development stage.关键词
能源结构/气候治理/经济增长/广义双重差分/巴黎协定Key words
energy structure/climate governance/economic growth/generalized difference-in-differences/Paris Agreement分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
章子琪,张晨宇,张永冀..能源结构、气候治理与区域经济增长[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(12):154-166,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"气候风险对地方政府债务的影响机制及化解路径研究"(批准号:23BJL131). （批准号:23BJL131）
