中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(12)：167-180,14.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250323
新型工业化建设与县域产业结构转型升级:理论机制与政策效应
New industrialization construction and county-level industrial structure transforma-tion:theoretical mechanisms and policy effects
摘要
Abstract
The new industrialization process drives industrial structure transformation and is an important aspect of China's efforts to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system and achieve high-quality development.Counties play a pivotal role in the inte-grated development of urban and rural areas and in promoting new industrialization.Based on panel data from 2 679 counties from 2003 to 2022,this study used the establishment of national new industrialization demonstration bases as a quasi-natural experiment to con-struct a difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the impact of new industrialization on county-level industrial structure transformation.The results showed that:① New industrialization significantly promoted county-level industrial structure transforma-tion,with the main conclusions remaining significant after a series of robustness tests.② The impact of new industrialization on indus-trial structure transformation proved more pronounced in counties with stronger industrial foundations,in western regions,and in coun-ties exhibiting weaker government competition.③ New industrialization primarily promoted county-level industrial structure transfor-mation by enhancing entrepreneurial activity,factor supply,and agglomeration effects.First,it facilitated industrial structural transfor-mation by increasing both the quantity and density of newly registered enterprises within counties.Second,it drove industrial structural transformation through increasing patent applications,promoting intensive land transactions,and enhancing financial factor supply.Third,it promoted industrial structural transformation by exerting agglomeration effects,including population agglomeration and indus-trial agglomeration.④ New industrialization exhibited significant positive spatial spillover effects on industrial structure transforma-tion.This impact demonstrated an initially inhibitory and then promotional trend as geographical distance increased.Furthermore,new industrialization effectively enhanced both urban and rural income levels at the county level and promoted regional economic develop-ment,though its impact on narrowing regional development disparities was not significant.Based on these findings,the following policy recommendations are proposed:① Advancing county-level new industrialization should further strengthen comprehensive coordination by establishing cross-departmental communication and coordination mechanisms.② Policy support intensity should be enhanced,and standardized management practices should be advanced.③ The supporting role of key factors,such as technology,talent,and capital,should be strengthened.This study provides policy implications for deepening new industrialization construction,accelerating the coun-ty-level industrial structure transformation and upgrading,and comprehensively enhancing the quality and efficiency of economic devel-opment.关键词
新型工业化/产业结构/转型升级/县域/双重差分Key words
new industrialization/industrial structure/transformation/county level/difference-in-differences分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杜传忠,曹效喜,刘书彤..新型工业化建设与县域产业结构转型升级:理论机制与政策效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(12):167-180,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"新一代人工智能对中国经济高质量发展的影响、趋向及应对战略研究"(批准号:20&ZD067). （批准号:20&ZD067）
