当代经济科学2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：46-60,15.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.2026001
人工智能时代的工资与劳动:智能机器人渗透的经济效应
Wages and Labour in the Age of Artificial Intelligence:The Economic Effects of Intelligent Robot Penetration
摘要
Abstract
The application of intelligent robots is profoundly transforming human production and lifestyles,with their penetration into traditional labor forces exhibiting dual effects of substitution and creation.This dynamic dual effect not only drives productivity enhancement and occupational transformation through intelligent development,but also introduces greater uncertainty to employment patterns and income distribution in the labor market,manifesting as the"hollowing out of the middle class"and emerging income inequality issues.On one hand,artificial intelligence has led to the replacement of numerous simple,repetitive tasks by robots,intensifying unemployment risks for medium-and low-skilled workers or forcing them into lower-paying jobs.On the other hand,intelligent penetration fosters the emergence and development of new professions demanding higher skills and knowledge.These transformations pose new challenges to labor market stability and equity.Therefore,examining the micro-level effects of robot penetration and ensuring that artificial intelligence development benefits broader social groups holds significant practical importance. This study constructs a task-biased theoretical model integrating horizontal penetration and vertical innovation to analyze impacts of intelligent robots on labor income,wage rates,and labor participation rates at the micro level.The theoretical analysis suggests that current intelligent robot penetration reduces labor income and displaces labor participation share while increasing wage rates,thereby widening income disparities between high-and low-skilled sectors.Empirically,utilizing data from the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)and the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),we constructed a micro-level dataset comprising 7,674 observations from 2015-2019.Employing a two-way fixed effects model,we systematically examined the actual impacts and mechanisms of intelligent robot penetration on labor income,wage rates,and labor participation share(measured by working months and days),addressing endogeneity through instrumental variable approaches.Heterogeneity analyses based on occupational and industrial variations were conducted.The findings demonstrate that robot penetration leads to decreased labor income and labor participation share alongside increased wage rates.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that such penetration exacerbates the"polarization effect"between high-and low-tech sectors while narrowing participation rate disparities.Mechanistic analysis indicates that robot penetration affects labor employment through occupational mobility,industrial transformation,and increased employment stability risks.Furthermore,the analysis shows that increased penetration rates widen income inequality,particularly in service sectors. Compared to previous studies,the contributions of this paper are primarily reflected in:(1)Examining the dynamic evolution of intelligent robots'substitution and creation effects,particularly the structural differentiation characteristics among occupational groups at the micro level.(2)Integrating income and labor participation within a unified framework,focusing on income distribution and labor force participation to accurately assess the comprehensive economic impact of intelligent robot penetration,thereby expanding the dimensionality of impact evaluation at the micro level.(3)Systematically discussing the synergistic mechanisms through which intelligent robot penetration generates both positive and negative impacts on the labor market,thus providing more precise decision-making support for labor market policy formulation in the artificial intelligence era. This study systematically validates the comprehensive effects of intelligent robot penetration on the labor market,offering a micro-level perspective for understanding emerging challenges in the artificial intelligence era.Accordingly,policy recommendations are proposed to promote the efficient synergy and integrated advancement of artificial intelligence technology development and high-quality full employment.These include achieving the transition from"income polarization"to"opportunity equity"through workforce skills training and structural fiscal and tax policies,and shifting from"passive safety nets"to"proactive empowerment"to smoothly navigate the coexistence of upward labor mobility and increased employment risks.关键词
人工智能/机器人渗透/劳动参与份额/工资率/劳动收入/任务偏向/极化效应/共同富裕Key words
artificial intelligence/robot penetration/labor participation share/wage rate/labour income/task bias/polarization effect/common prosperity引用本文复制引用
郭晗,冯星源..人工智能时代的工资与劳动:智能机器人渗透的经济效应[J].当代经济科学,2026,48(1):46-60,15.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2023M741631). （2023M741631）
