电力科技与环保2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：137-147,11.DOI:10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2026.01.014
结合经济性和充裕性的电力系统灵活调节优化研究
Optimization research of power system flexible regulation combining economy and sufficiency
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,improving the flexible adjustment ability of the system is an important means to build a new power system in various places.In order to improve the flexibility of power system in a region in different years,[Methods]In this paper,the reference scenario parameters are determined according to the current situation and planning documents of energy and power development in a certain region,and the power balance calculation of the reference scenario is carried out to obtain the power gap under the reference scenario.Based on the principle of compensating the power gap under the benchmark scenario,a four-step modeling method is used to set up multiple scenarios for economic analysis of flexible regulation of power system,and the economic optimization is taken as the objective function to optimize the solution.The rationality of the optimization results is verified by the calculation of the cumulative abandonment rate at each moment of the year,so as to find the power installed combination that meets the constraints and meets the requirements of adequacy(abandonment rate).[Results]The research shows that the optimization of peak load regulation in the study area presents a phased characteristic.Before the large-scale operation of pumped storage,the new energy storage can replace part of the pumped storage capacity to ensure supply and peak load shifting.After the large-scale operation of pumped storage,the substitution effect of the new energy storage is weakened.Before 2030,based on the 2022 reference year,there is still a need to add 10.5 million kW coal power installed capacity,3.8 million kW pumped storage installed capacity,and 6 million kW new energy storage installed capacity.Under the premise of no longer considering new coal-fired power generation after 2030,in 2035,based on the 2022 reference year,about 16.3 million kW of new pumped storage capacity will be added,and the new energy storage will maintain the target of 2030.The optimization results of the three key target years of 2025,2030 and 2035 all meet the requirement that the abandonment rate is less than 10%.[Conclusion]The optimal power regulation capacity configuration scheme in accordance with the regional reality under each key level year is obtained,including the types and installed capacity of newly added power sources,through which a theoretical foundation is established to support governmental decision-making processes,to achieving the strategic goal of carbon peak on schedule.关键词
电力系统/灵活调节/充裕性/四步建模法/经济性Key words
power system/flexible regulation/adequacy/four-step modeling/economy分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
张毅,李学军,余虎,程远林,吴迪,汪若宇..结合经济性和充裕性的电力系统灵活调节优化研究[J].电力科技与环保,2026,42(1):137-147,11.基金项目
湖南省重点研发计划项目(2023SK2078) （2023SK2078）
