灌溉排水学报2026，Vol.45Issue(2)：100-110,11.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025260
基于PLUS模型的天山北坡城市群耕地时空演变及预测
Spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in urban areas on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and their prediction
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Rapid urbanization in Northwestern China over the past decades has substantially reshaped the landscape of cultivated land both spatially and temporally.Taking the urban areas on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as an example,this paper analyzes these changes from 1980 to 2020.[Method]The analysis was based on the land transfer matrix,the gravity center migration model and other methods.The dynamic trend of the cultivated land changes under different future scenarios was predicted using the PLUS model.[Result]①From 1980 to 2020,the cultivated land area in the region increased by 7 930.80 km2.Grassland and unused land were the primary sources of the increased cultivated land.However,the rate of cultivated land change varied spatially,with Tianshan District,Karamay District,and Kuitun City experiencing more significant changes than other regions.②From 1980 to 2020,cultivated land in the region shifted northwestward and became less fragmented and more connected.③Under the natural development scenario,it was predicted that the cultivated land area would increase by 1 758.42 km2 in 2030,while under the ecological protection and urban development scenarios,the cultivated land area was predicted to decrease by 143.56 km2 and 1 359.45 km2,respectively,in 2030,compared to the prediction under the natural development scenario.[Conclusion]Cultivated land in urban areas on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains has experienced substantial expansion from 1980 to 2020.To ensure food security and sustainable regional development,future planning should integrate ecological protection and urban development to optimize the use of cultivated land resources.关键词
耕地/PLUS模型/时空演变/破碎化/天山北坡城市群Key words
cultivated land/PLUS model/space-time evolution/fragmentation/urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
魏玺,阳大智,朱康文..基于PLUS模型的天山北坡城市群耕地时空演变及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(2):100-110,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42301353) （42301353）
