干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(2)：265-274,10.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.122
塔里木河流域生态系统服务价值与土地利用的动态变化
Dynamic changes of ecosystem service value and land use in the Tarim River Basin
摘要
Abstract
This research integrates the Flus-Markov model and the equivalent factor method to analyze dy-namic changes in the land use patterns in the Tarim River Basin from 2012 to 2032,evaluate the spatiotem-poral characteristics of ecosystem service value(ESV),and predict its future trends,based on Landsat re-mote sensing images and socioeconomic data.The results show that:(1)From 2012 to 2032,the area of un-used land and water first decreased and then increased,while the cultivated land area expanded and grassland degraded significantly continuously,resulting in a decrease of 2093.72×108 yuan in the total ESV.The contri-butions of grassland and water decreased by 2984.17×108 yuan and 38.44×108 yuan,respectively.(2)The spa-tial distribution of ESV shows a significant gradient,decreasing from high values in the northwest to low values in the southeast.Hydrological regulation,climate regulation,and gas regulation are key service func-tions.(3)Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in water bodies and grasslands have the greatest impact on ESV.A low value of the elasticity of coefficient correction indicates that the estimation results are robust.Model validation reveals a Kappa coefficient of 0.95,indicating reliable prediction accuracy.(4)Land use and normalized difference vegetation index are the main factors influencing the ESV of the Tarim River Ba-sin.This study reveals the correlation between the degradation of ecological service functions and increased land use in the Tarim River Basin.ESV could be improved by optimizing land use structure,strengthening grassland and water conservation,and providing a scientific basis for ecological security and sustainable de-velopment in arid areas.关键词
生态系统服务价值/土地利用/Flus-Markov/动态变化/塔里木河流域Key words
ecosystem service value/land use/Flus-Markov/dynamic changes/Tarim River Basin引用本文复制引用
曾勇,毕钰,张洪彬,施枫芝,王鹏..塔里木河流域生态系统服务价值与土地利用的动态变化[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(2):265-274,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206801) （2023YFC3206801）
新疆师范大学青年拔尖人才项目(XJNUQB2024-12) （XJNUQB2024-12）
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2023D01B52) （2023D01B52）
国家自然科学基金项目(42171041)资助 （42171041）
