干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(2)：316-331,16.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.148
气候情景驱动下秦巴山区植被生长动态模拟与气候驱动机制
Simulation of vegetation growth dynamics and climatic driving mechanisms in the Qinling-Daba Mountains under climate scenarios
摘要
Abstract
The Qinling-Daba Mountains are located at the convergence of the climatic transition zone between northern and southern China and the ecotone between warm-temperate and subtropical regions.As a climate-sen-sitive area,investigating the coupling relationships between vegetation and climate in this area is critical for un-derstanding the evolutionary mechanisms of ecosystems under climate change.This study employs a multiple lin-ear regression model to predict kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI)values under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios from 2024 to 2100,based on MODIS data and climatic factor datasets from 2001 to 2023.The Theil Sen Median estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze spatiotemporal trends of vegetation changes,and path analysis was applied to dissect the driving mechanisms of key climatic factors.The results reveal that(1)Temperature is the dominant factor driving vegetation changes,spatially covering 67.27%of the study area,with its positive effects concentrated in the Qinling-Daba Mountain region,whereas the impacts of evapotranspiration and precipitation exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity.(2)The vegetation kND-VI increased by 0.1 from 2001 to 2023,demonstrating a"rapid initial growth followed by a gradual slowdown"trend,with degradation areas concentrated in low-altitude urbanized zones and high-altitude regions constrained by water-heat limitations.(3)Future scenario simulations reveal that vegetation dynamics stabilize under SSP119,whereas SSP585 demonstrates divergent trends,with the direct inhibitory effects of evapotranspiration coexisting with indirect facilitative effects driven by increased temperatures.(4)The replenishment efficiency of precipita-tion for vegetation diminishes with increasing climate extremes,whereas the direct climatic forcing of tempera-ture significantly intensifies under elevated emission scenarios.(5)Regional vegetation responses indicate signifi-cant spatial heterogeneity,requiring differentiated ecological restoration strategies.These strategies should priori-tize high-altitude vulnerable zones,low-altitude areas disturbed by human activities,and evapotranspiration-sensi-tive regions in the central-eastern sectors.This study reveals the nonlinear response of vegetation to climate change in the Qinling-Daba Mountains,thereby confirming the ecological stability advantages of the low-carbon pathway(SSP119)and providing spatially optimized strategies for vegetation conservation and carbon sequestra-tion enhancement under regional carbon neutrality goals.关键词
kNDVl/SSPs/秦巴山区/气候因子/多元线性回归模型/趋势分析Key words
kNDVI/SSPs/the Qinling-Daba Mountains/climate factors/multiple linear regression analysis/trend analysis引用本文复制引用
高锦涛,张翀,井静,钟春霞,杨瑞霞..气候情景驱动下秦巴山区植被生长动态模拟与气候驱动机制[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(2):316-331,16.基金项目
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JM-513) （2021JM-513）
陕西省自然科学基础研究项目(2021JQ-804) （2021JQ-804）
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2020F009) （2020F009）
陕西省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202210721079)资助 （S202210721079）
