干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(2)：304-312,9.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.02.08
2004-2024年青海湖岸区淹没影响及风险评估
Inundation impacts and risk assessment of Qinghai Lake from 2004 to 2024
摘要
Abstract
To understand the submerged areas and impacts of expansion of Qinghai Lake and to improve early-warnings of lakeside inundation and risk-avoidance strategies,this study quantifies the inundation patterns,envi-ronmental effects of rising water levels,and predictions of future flood risk through geospatial analyses(normal-ized difference water index and digital elevation model simulations)of integrated Landsat TM/OLI imagery(2004-2024),elevation data,land-use maps,and regional meteorological and hydrological records.From 2004 to 2024,the lake level rose by 4.2 m while the surface area increased at 19.3 km2 per year,permanently submerging 197.3 km2 of grassland and 131.7 km2 of sandy land.The inundation frequency along the shoreline strongly de-pends on elevation,being high in the Shadao area on the eastern shore and moderate-to-low in the mouths of Buha and Shaliu Rivers on the northwestern shore.Scenario simulations indicated that the expanding lake area does not affect the surrounding highways or railways over the short-term.However,if the water level reaches 3202 m,it will threaten a section of the G109 national highway on the southern shore,and if it rises to 3204 m,it may inundate the Qinghai-Xizang railway on the northwestern shore.关键词
青海湖/淹没风险/Landsat/气候变化/地理空间分析Key words
Qinghai Lake/inundation risk/Landsat/climate change/geospatial analysis引用本文复制引用
马红璐,赵彤,李晓东,姬海娟,祝存兄..2004-2024年青海湖岸区淹没影响及风险评估[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(2):304-312,9.基金项目
国家自然科学联合基金项目(U23A2062,U21A2021) （U23A2062,U21A2021）
中国气象局气候变化专项(QBZZ202509) （QBZZ202509）
青海省气象局重点项目(QXZD2024-07) （QXZD2024-07）
