干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(2)：384-397,14.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.02.15
天山北坡"三生"空间优化与调控研究
Optimization and regulation of"production-living-ecological"space on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains
摘要
Abstract
This study takes the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as the research area and focuses on the evolution patterns,driving factors,and optimal regulation strategies of its"production-living-ecological"(PLE)space.By constructing a multiscale evaluation index system and applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the Coupling Coordination Degree Model,and the Future Land Use Simulation model,integrated with multi-source data—including land use,topography,meteorology,and social economy—a systematic analysis of the dy-namic change characteristics and coordination of PLE spaces from 2010 to 2020 was conducted.The results dem-onstrate that,mainly influenced by urbanization,industrialization,and agricultural development,production space and living space expanded by 8.3%and 6.5%respectively,while ecological space decreased by 7.2%.Re-garding spatial distribution,agricultural production exhibited a trend of"retreating southward and advancing northward,"industrial production clustered along major transportation corridors,living space expanded outward with the Urumqi Urban Agglomeration as the core,and ecological space remained stable in high-altitude moun-tainous areas but degraded significantly in mid-to low-altitude regions.Multiscale integrated analysis demonstrat-ed typical spatial conflict types,such as urban expansion vs.cultivated land protection and agricultural develop-ment vs.ecological conservation.Based on simulation and optimization results,a regulation strategy character-ized by"core agglomeration,corridor connection,and zonal management"is proposed,offering a scientific basis for regional territorial spatial planning and sustainable development.This study introduces innovations in the sus-tainability evaluation of PLE space functions and multi-scale integration methods.However,future research should further quantify the impacts of climate change and policy interventions to optimize the model's dynamism and accuracy.关键词
天山北坡/"三生"空间/多尺度评价/耦合协调度/FLUS模型/优化调控Key words
northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains/"production-living-ecological"space/multi-scale evalua-tion/coupling coordination degree/FLUS model/optimization and regulation引用本文复制引用
郝书豪,李鹏,刘润,刘晓煌,祝萍..天山北坡"三生"空间优化与调控研究[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(2):384-397,14.基金项目
自然资源观测监测一体化技术体系研究项目(DD20230514) （DD20230514）
塔里木河重要源流区耕地及后备资源调查监测分析关键技术研究(2024ZRBSHZ013) （2024ZRBSHZ013）
新疆耕地未耕种监测分析与评价关键技术研究(2024ZRSBHZ049) （2024ZRSBHZ049）
新疆典型生态系统综合全参数观测建设(2021xjkk140104) （2021xjkk140104）
