湖南大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.53Issue(1)：104-116,13.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbzkb.2026010
基于贝叶斯网络的梅州市公路边坡灾害危险性评价
Risk assessment of geological disasters along active highways in Meizhou City based on Bayesian network model
摘要
Abstract
Due to the influence of terrain and climate,the risk of highway slope disasters in Meizhou City is prominent.This study focuses on a 500-meter range on either side of the existing mainline highways in Meizhou,selecting eight evaluation factors-elevation,slope,curvature,lithology,NDVI,TWI,annual average rainfall,and maximum monthly rainfall-to construct a highway slope disaster susceptibility index evaluation system.Based on historical highway slope disaster data,a Bayesian network model is established to predict the susceptibility of highway slopes to disasters and further to analyze the distribution characteristics of landslide hazards under different rainfall scenarios.The conclusions are as follows:1)The Bayesian network model for highway slope disaster susceptibility evaluation achieves an AUC of 0.832,indicating good reliability.Additionally,the SHAP values from the Bayesian network model show that lithology,slope,and maximum monthly rainfall are the three most influential factors affecting highway slope disasters in Meizhou City.2)Considering three rainfall scenarios(1-in-10,1-in-50,and 1-in-100-year events),the areas of extremely high-risk regions gradually increased,accounting for 13％,19％,and 22％,respectively.3)Based on web scraping tools to retrieve social media data,all historical highway slope disaster cases in Meizhou are located in regions classified as high and extremely high hazard levels.The findings of this study provide a valuable reference for the prevention and control of highway slope disasters in Meizhou City.关键词
滑坡易发性/贝叶斯网络/公路滑坡/降雨工况/滑坡Key words
landslide susceptibility/Bayesian networks/highway landslide/rainfall condition/landslide分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
孙克强,李金凤,黄楚婷,李啟荣,周苏华,刘晓明..基于贝叶斯网络的梅州市公路边坡灾害危险性评价[J].湖南大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,53(1):104-116,13.基金项目
贵州省交通运输厅科技项目(2025-112-018),Science and Technology Program of Guizhou Provincial Department of Communication and Transportation(2025-112-018) （2025-112-018）
长沙市自然科学基金资助项目(kq2402072),Natural Science Foundation of Changsha(kq2402072) （kq2402072）
贵州省科技支撑计划(2020-4Y047),Science and Technology Infrastructure Program of Guizhou Province(2020-4Y047) （2020-4Y047）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(12062026),National Natural Science Foundation of China(12062026) （12062026）
广东省交通集团有限公司科技项目(JT2022YB24),Sci-ence and Technology Program of Guangdong Transportation Group Co.,Ltd.(JT2022YB24) （JT2022YB24）
