华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：56-65,72,11.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026007
"四水四定"理念下京津冀地区水安全评价及均衡度分析
Water Security Evaluation and Equilibrium Degree Analysis in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region under Concept of″Defining City,Land,Population,and Industry by Water″
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The increasingly acute contradiction between water supply and demand has become one of the main fac-tors restricting high-quality socio-economic development.Against this backdrop,conducting regional water security evaluations help explore possible ways to alleviate this contradiction.[Methods]Based on the concept of ″defining city,land,population,and industry by water,″ indicators were selected from the perspective of coordinated development of water resources and ″city,land,population,and industry″ to construct an indicator system for water security evaluation.Meanwhile,a water security evaluation model was established based on unascertained measure theory coupled with the Gini coefficient to identify key influ-encing factors and analyze their spatiotemporal equilibrium characteristics.[Results](1)During 2006-2010 and 2014-2016,the water security level in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was medium,while in the other years it was good.(2)The key influencing factors for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were the proportion of arable land,per capita water resources,and per capita construction land area.In Beijing and Tianjin,the key influencing factors were population density,per capita water resources,and per capita construction land area.In Chengde,the key factor was per capita construction land area.In Xingtai and Handan,the key factor was water consumption per 10 000 yuan of GDP,and in Zhangjiakou,it was construction land area.(3)In Chengde,the Gini coefficients of primary industry output and construction land area versus total water consump-tion were both greater than 0.4,indicating a large disparity.The secondary industry output in Tangshan and the primary in-dustry output and construction land area in Zhangjiakou versus total water consumption had Gini coefficients all greater than 0.3,indicating a relatively reasonable distribution.The allocation of total water consumption relative to population,industrial output,and land use in other cities was generally more balanced.[Conclusion]Overall,water security in the Beijing-Tian-jin-Hebei region is good but fluctuating,with improvements in the northern and southern areas but a decline in the western area.It is mainly influenced by per capita water resources and construction land area,and the spatial distribution of water security is uneven.It is recommended to promote water-saving irrigation,tiered water pricing,and optimize industrial water allocation and construction land use to enhance the coordination and sustainability of regional water use.关键词
"四水四定"/基尼系数/未确知测度模型/客观赋权法/京津冀地区/水安全评价Key words
″defining city,land,population,and industry by water″/Gini coefficient/unascertained measure model/objec-tive weighting method/Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region/water security evaluation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
钟瀚霖,王红瑞,杨亚锋,门宝辉,李一阳.."四水四定"理念下京津冀地区水安全评价及均衡度分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,47(1):56-65,72,11.基金项目
北京市自然科学基金项目(8222057) （8222057）
国家自然科学基金项目(52279005). （52279005）
