科技智囊Issue(1)：93-99,7.DOI:10.19881/j.cnki.1006-3676.2026.01.13
江苏省城市社会风险评估及其波动效应的实证考察
An Empirical Study of Urban Social Risks Assessment in Jiangsu Province
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]Strengthening social risks governance is crucial for enhancing national governance capacity.From a catastrophe theory perspective,this study conducts an empirical assessment of urban social risks and their fluctuations in Jiangsu Province.[Research method]An evaluation system with three dimensions and 12 indicators is constructed,and a catastrophe model is used to examine the evolution trend of urban social risks in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2023.[Research conclusion]The results show an overall long-term decline in social risks,albeit with short-term fluctuations caused by external shocks.Spatially,risks increase incrementally from southern to central and northern Jiangsu.While social security and environmental governance have improved,population aging poses a mountingchallenge.Accordingly,this paper proposes improving the social security system to tackle aging,promoting regional coordination to narrow disparities,and establishing a public risk early warning mechanism.These recommendations provide a reference for the prevention and governance of urban social risks in Jiangsu and similar regions.关键词
城市社会风险/突变理论/经济发展/城市发展Key words
urban social risks/catastrophe theory/economic development/urban development分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
姜志祥..江苏省城市社会风险评估及其波动效应的实证考察[J].科技智囊,2026,(1):93-99,7.基金项目
2025年江苏省教育科学规划课题"共生理论视域下职业教育'中高本'思政课一体化贯通路径研究"(C/2025/02/79) （C/2025/02/79）
中国交通教育研究会2024-2026年度教育科学研究课题"新质生产力与交通运输职业教育的耦合逻辑及方法路径研究"(JT2024YB073) （JT2024YB073）
2025年江苏省高职高专院校思想政治理论课教学研究项目"教育家精神引领高校青年思政课教师队伍高质量发展研究"(2025JSSZYB45). （2025JSSZYB45）
