南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.50Issue(1)：263-273,11.DOI:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008
多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究
System dynamics simulation of China's high-quality forestry development under multi-policy combination
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The internal mechanism of the high-quality forestry development system is complex,and it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the policy system for high-quality forestry development through the optimized configuration of different policy combinations to cope with the coordination requirements of high-quality forestry development for multiple economic,ecological and social goals.[Method]Based on the new development philosophy,a simulation model of high-quality forestry development system was constructed from four dimensions:scientific and technological innovation,industrial coordination,people's livelihood and green development.The high-quality development level of China's forestry from 2021 to 2035 was simulated under four policy-oriented scenarios.[Result](1)China's forestry high-quality development will reach a medium-high level,and can even reach a high level under certain policy combinations in 2035.(2)The development potential of the scenario of scientific and technological innovation priority under the implementation of a single policy is the best.(3)The development potential of combined policies is better than that of single policies.(4)As the number of policies accumulates,the marginal effect decreases.[Conclusion]Based on priority,technological innovation and green development should be the focus of current policy implementation,while industrial restructuring and the improvement of people's well-being should be pursued as long-term objectives.Promote the implementation of integrated policies involving multiple departments to enhance the level of high-quality forestry development.Policymakers should coordinate at the macro level to avoid the duplication or conflict of multiple policies.关键词
林业高质量发展/系统动力学/多情景模拟/政策仿真Key words
high-quality forestry development/system dynamics/multi-scenario simulation/policy simulation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
谢煜,张雨桐,张智光..多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,50(1):263-273,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71673136). （71673136）
