农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：1149-1161,13.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0912
农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的影响机制研究
Influencing mechanisms of rural population aging on agricultural ecological efficiency
摘要
Abstract
Improving agricultural ecological efficiency is a crucial pathway to addressing the challenges of rural aging and achieving sustainable agricultural development.Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces during 2012-2023,this study applies panel fixed-effects,mediating effect,moderating effect,and threshold effect models to systematically examine the impact of rural aging on agricultural ecological efficiency and its underlying mechanisms.The results show that:1)rural aging significantly reduces agricultural ecological efficiency,and this conclusion is supported by endogeneity tests and multiple robustness checks;2)heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative impact of aging is more pronounced in grain balance areas,low-aging groups,and high-education cohorts;3)mechanism analysis demonstrates that aging suppresses agricultural ecological efficiency by increasing carbon emissions,whereas technological progress can effectively mitigate this adverse effect;4)further analysis reveals a nonlinear diminishing trend of the negative impact of rural aging as land scale expands.Based on these findings,this study proposes several policy recommendations:implementing differentiated agricultural development strategies,controlling agricultural carbon emissions at the source,strengthening green technological innovation and application,and promoting intensive land use and scaled operations to alleviate the adverse effects of aging on agricultural ecological efficiency.关键词
老龄化/农业生态效率/碳排放/技术进步/土地规模/影响机制Key words
aging/agricultural ecological efficiency/carbon emissions/technological progress/land scale/influencing mechanisms分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵毅,高瑞..农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的影响机制研究[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(6):1149-1161,13.基金项目
海南大学科研启动经费项目(XJ2400002971) （XJ2400002971）
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2023A1515010994) （2023A1515010994）
广东省哲学与社会科学规划基金青年项目(GD23YGL01).Supported by the Hainan University Research Startup Funding Project(XJ2400002971) （GD23YGL01）
the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010994):the Youth Project of Guangdong Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning(GD23YGL01). （2023A1515010994）
