农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：1162-1170,9.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.1171
谁在种地?老人离农对农地退出的影响
Who is farming?The impact of the elderly leaving agriculture on farmland exit
摘要
Abstract
The key to answering"Who will feed China"lies in identifying"Who is farming the land".This paper uses data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)to study the impact of the elderly leaving agriculture on land exit,exit modes,and transferees.The results show that:1)the exit of the elderly from agriculture significantly increases the likelihood that farming households will withdraw from agricultural land.For every additional elderly person leaving agriculture,the probability of land exit rises by about 8.5%.2)The impact of family members'migration on land exit shows distinct intergenerational differences.Specifically,the probability of land exit associated with the migration of family members born before 1960 is 4.59 times that of those born in or after 1980.3)Distinguishing between different modes of land exit,it is found that the exit of the elderly significantly increases both land transfer and land fallowing.However,the likelihood of agricultural land being left fallow is greater than that of being transferred.4)Distinguishing between different transferees,it is found that compared with relatives and friends,the exit of the elderly does not significantly increase the probability of transferring land to other transferees.This study shows that in the process of the intergenerational transition of the rural population,the older generation of farmers remains the main agricultural labor force.Therefore,it is necessary to continue cultivating new types of business entities as an effective supplement to small farmers in order to address the challenges posed by the aging agricultural population.关键词
农业人口老龄化/代际转换/农地流转/农地撂荒/农地退出Key words
agricultural population aging/generational transition/land transfer/land fallow/land exit分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
洪炜杰..谁在种地?老人离农对农地退出的影响[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(6):1162-1170,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72203064) （72203064）
广州市基础与应用基础研究项目(2025A04J4603) （2025A04J4603）
广东人文社科重点实验室重点项目(GD24TWCXGC08) （GD24TWCXGC08）
广州市社会科学规划项目(2025GZQN018).Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72203064) （2025GZQN018）
Guangzhou Basic and Applied Basic Research Project(2025A04J4603) （2025A04J4603）
Key Laboratory of Humanities and Social Sciences in Guangdong Province(GD24TWCXGC08) （GD24TWCXGC08）
Guangzhou Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project(2025GZQN018). （2025GZQN018）
