水产学报2026，Vol.50Issue(2)：91-101,11.DOI:10.11964/jfc.20250615016
基于LIME模型的海州湾小眼绿鳍鱼资源评估
Stock assessment of Chelidonichthys spinosus in Haizhou Bay based on the Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects(LIME)model
摘要
Abstract
Driven by environmental changes and fishing pressure,the stock status of Chelidonichthys spinosus has changed sig-nificantly in Haizhou Bay in recent years.However,due to the lack of data such as yields and fishing efforts,stock assessments are challenging for this species and the status of fishery exploitation remains unclear.In this study,we used length-frequency data obtained from the fishery surveys in Haizhou Bay from 2013 to 2023 to assess the stock status of C.spinosus using the Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects(LIME)model which is based on non-equilibrium assumptions.The uncertainty of the LIME model was further considered,and sensitivity analyses were conducted on parameters such as the steepness(h)in the stock-recruitment relationship,the natural mortality coefficient(M),and the length of the time series data.The results showed that the fishing mortality coefficients of C.spinosus were relatively high(F=2.09-2.72)in Haizhou Bay from 2013 to 2023,significantly exceeding the biological reference point F30=0.81.Recruitment of C.spinosus showed a fluctuating and declin-ing trend,with the spawning potential ratio(SPR)ranged from 0.106 to 0.129,indicating that the stock was heavily overfished.The sensitivity analysis showed that the natural mortality coefficient(M)had a significant impact on the assessment results,while the impact of the steepness(h)was relatively small.The length of the time series had a significant effect on the estima-tion results of LIME,with a greater impact on the bias of F than on SPR.We highlight that LIME is capable to assess the stock status based on length-frequency data and is suitable for data-limited fisheries;however,it is sensitive to parameters such as natural mortality,and caution should be taken when the model is implemented in practice,regarding the estimation of critical parameters,the life history characteristics of target species,and the feasibility of survey data.关键词
小眼绿鳍鱼/资源评估/LIME模型/产卵潜力比/敏感性分析Key words
Chelidonichthys spinosus/stock assessment/Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects(LIME)model/spawning potential ratio(SPR)/sensitivity analysis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
郭灏贤,王琨,解先旭,张崇良..基于LIME模型的海州湾小眼绿鳍鱼资源评估[J].水产学报,2026,50(2):91-101,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFD2401301) National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFD2401301) （2022YFD2401301）
