世界科学技术-中医药现代化2026，Vol.28Issue(1)：55-70,16.DOI:10.11842/wst.20250221005
病证结合模式下特发性肺纤维化急性加重风险预测模型的构建与初步验证
Construction and Preliminary Validation of A Risk Prediction Model for Acute Exacerbation of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Based on the Disease-Syndrome Combination Mode
摘要
Abstract
Objective To integrate traditional Chinese medicine syndrome elements in constructing a risk prediction model for acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis(IPF).Methods Based on a clinical database,271 IPF patients were included as study subjects.The participants were randomly divided into a modeling set and a validation set in a 7∶3 ratio,with a follow-up period of 26 weeks.Whether acute exacerbation(AE)occurred within 26 weeks was used as the outcome indicator,and clinical research data served as independent variables.Logistic regression was employed to identify risk factors for AE in IPF patients.Preliminary screening results underwent steps such as data sampling and parameter selection to construct an integrated disease-syndrome risk prediction model for acute exacerbation of IPF.Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination and calibration,and validation of the risk prediction model was conducted.Results The modeling set comprised 195 cases,and the validation set included 76 cases.The constructed Model 2 demonstrated good predictive performance and was ultimately presented in the form of a nomogram.Conclusion This study can provide a reference for developing prevention and treatment strategies for IPF.关键词
病证结合/特发性肺纤维化/急性加重/风险预测模型Key words
Integration of disease and evidence/Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis/Acute exacerbation/Risk prediction models分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
于宁霞,杨曙光,徐莉莉,李路广,闫若男,余学庆..病证结合模式下特发性肺纤维化急性加重风险预测模型的构建与初步验证[J].世界科学技术-中医药现代化,2026,28(1):55-70,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会青年项目(82505809):融合病证结合理论和多模态技术的进展性肺纤维化风险预测模型,负责人:于宁霞 （82505809）
河南省科学技术厅河南省自然科学基金项目(252300420621):基于Landmark方法构建病证结合模式下进展性肺纤维化的动态风险预测模型,负责人:于宁霞 （252300420621）
国家自然科学基金委员会面上项目(82174307):基于生物标志物的特发性肺纤维化疾病预后模型的建立,负责人:余学庆. （82174307）
