太阳能Issue(2)：5-14,10.DOI:10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20250115.01
人工智能技术在光伏发电输出功率预测领域的研究进展与展望
RESEARCH PROGRESS AND PROSPECTS OF AI IN THE FIELD OF PREDICTION OF PV POWER GENERATION OUTPUT POWER
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of the increasing installed capacity of PV power generation year by year,the intermittency and randomness of PV power generation pose a significant threat to the safe operation of the power grid.As the core driving force of the current technological revolution and industrial transformation,AI technology is increasingly being valued for its application in prediction of output power of PV power generation.This paper comprehensively analyzes the current application status,research results,and challenges faced by AI technology in the field of prediction of output power of PV power generation,and predicts its development trend in the field of prediction of output power of PV power generation.The analysis results show that:1)The prediction technology of output power of PV power generation based on deep learning has achieved significant research results,which can significantly reduce the error rate of prediction results,prediction technology of output power of PV power generation based on optimization algorithms,prediction technology of output power of PV power generation based on physical and statistical methods,and other prediction technologies are constantly advancing,improving the accuracy and robustness of predictions through technological integration.2)The challenges faced by the application of AI technology in the field of prediction of output power of PV power generation mainly lie in the limitations of large-scale data processing,the need to improve the generalization ability and adaptability of prediction models,the poor timeliness of prediction results,the need to improve the transparency and credibility of prediction models,and the need for continuous innovation in prediction technology and algorithms.3)The development trend of AI technology in the field of prediction of output power of PV power generation is mainly reflected in four aspects:integrated models,explainable AI technology,real-time data and predicton model dynamic updates,and intelligent PV power generation systems.The research results can provide a solid theoretical basis and practical guidance for the advancement of prediction technology of output power of PV power generation.关键词
人工智能技术/光伏发电输出功率预测/深度学习/可解释性人工智能技术/技术创新Key words
AI technology/prediction of output power of PV power generation/deep learning/XAI/technological innovation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨军,李峰,武万里..人工智能技术在光伏发电输出功率预测领域的研究进展与展望[J].太阳能,2026,(2):5-14,10.基金项目
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03676) （2022AAC03676）
