四川林业科技2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：1-12,12.DOI:10.12172/202510100002
基于MaxEnt模型预测四川4种马先蒿潜在适生区
Prediction of potential suitable habitats for four Pedicularis species in Sichuan based on MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Pedicularis species serve as key indicator taxa in grassland community succession.Investigating their suitable distribution and future changes can provide theoretical basis for early warning of grassland degradation and sustainable utilization of grassland resources in this region.In this study,the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model was used,based on the distribution data of four Pedicularis species(P.cranolopha,P.kansuensis,P.longiflora,and P.verticillata)and combined with climatic,topographic,and soil environmental factors,the potential suitable habitats of four Pedicularis species in in Sichuan Province under the current climate and future(2041-2060,2061-2080)scenarios of both SSP126(low emission)and SSP585(high emission)were simulated and predicted.The results demonstrated that the prediction accuracy of the model was high(all AUC values were>0.90).The monthly average temperature range(Bio2)was the primary shared dominant factor for four species(the contribution rate was 27.80%-56.70%),and the suitable range was different among species:narrowest for P.verticillata(14.02℃-15.61℃)and widest for P.kansuensis(13.92-17.69℃).Under current climatic conditions,the high and medium suitability areas for all four species were primarily concentrated in the Ganzi and Aba Prefectures on the Western Sichuan Plateau(P.verticillata extended into Liangshan Prefecture),exhibiting an east-west differentiation pattern.Under the SSP126 scenario,the suitable habitat areas for P.cranolopha,P.kansuensis,and P.verticillata showed a declining trend,while that of P.longiflora significantly increased(by 60,800 km2)during 2041-2060,indicating its relative competitive advantage among the sympatric Pedicularis species.Under the SSP585 scenario,changes in total suitable area varied among species:P.kansuensis and P.verticillata increased initially and then decreased;P.cranolopha and P.longiflora showed an overall decreasing trend but with a tendency to increase over time.Across both future scenarios,the suitable habitat for P.cranolopha became highly fragmented,indicating the highest degradation risk(up to 52.00%).In contrast,P.longiflora exhibited significant expansion under SSP126.P.kansuensis and P.verticillata remained relatively stable overall(retention rate>82.28%)and demonstrated stronger potential for stress adaptation.Future expansion areas for all four species primarily migrated towards the northwest(Shiqu County)and southwest(Liangshan Prefecture).Therefore,the dynamic monitoring of these hotspot regions should be strengthened in the future to prevent potential disruption of grassland ecosystems due to biological invasion.关键词
马先蒿/MaxEnt模型/气候变化/适生区/环境因子Key words
Pedicularis/MaxEnt model/climate change/suitable habitat/environmental factor引用本文复制引用
满家银,吉帅帅,杨双昱,曾全,杨远亮,肖银波,贾玉珍..基于MaxEnt模型预测四川4种马先蒿潜在适生区[J].四川林业科技,2026,47(1):1-12,12.基金项目
现代农业产业技术体系四川饲草创新团队建设专项资金(SCCXTD-2025-16) （SCCXTD-2025-16）
