太平洋学报2025，Vol.33Issue(12)：32-46,15.DOI:10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2025.12.003
特朗普1.0到2.0:美国对东南亚国家贸易政策的演变、动因及影响
From Trump 1.0 to 2.0:The Evolution,Motivations and Impacts of the US Trade Policies towards Southeast Asian Nations
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of intensifying US-China strategic competition,Southeast Asia has increasingly emerged as a key arena of great power rivalry.With Donald Trump's reelection,adjustments to US trade policy toward Southeast Asian nations and their potential implications deserve a close examination.From the Trump 1.0 to the Trump 2.0,the diplomatic philosophies of"America First"and"transactionalism"have consistently shaped the administration's foreign policy.Consequently,US trade policy toward the region has undergone significant adjustments regarding tariffs,investment screening,and bilateral or multilateral agreements,becoming increasingly aggressive and comprehensive in scope.The fundamental driver of this policy shift lies in the US attempt to leverage trade instruments to secure a strategic competitive advantage in its rivalry with China.A comparative analysis of US trade policy toward Southeast Asia across Trump's two terms reveals three distinct evolutionary characteristics:the systematization and integration of policy tools,the dual convergence of economic and security dimensions in countering China,and a strong correlation with the leader's personal style.Furthermore,the intensification of geo-strategic rivalry and the prioritization of supply chain security have intertwined with US domestic economic structural interests and the rise of populism,collectively forming the complex driving forces behind this policy evolution.As the Trump 2.0 era begins,the global order faces heightened uncertainty.The adjustment of US policy toward Southeast Asia will inevitably exacerbate the challenges and pressures China faces in the region,generating new implications for both US-China strategic competition and China-ASEAN relations.关键词
特朗普政府/贸易政策/东南亚/中美战略竞争/美国—中国—东盟关系Key words
the Trump administration/rrade policy/Southeast Asia/China-U.S.strategic competition/U.S.-China-ASEAN relations分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
卢光盛,赵皓童..特朗普1.0到2.0:美国对东南亚国家贸易政策的演变、动因及影响[J].太平洋学报,2025,33(12):32-46,15.基金项目
本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目"大变局加速演进背景下中国与东盟共建命运共同体研究"(23&ZD332)的阶段性研究成果. （23&ZD332）
