铁道标准设计2026，Vol.70Issue(2)：1-7,45,8.DOI:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202402280007
新建城际铁路对出行频次影响的仿真研究
Simulation Study on Impacts of Newly Built Intercity Railway on Travel Frequency
摘要
Abstract
Predicting induced passenger flow after changes in travel environment and quantitatively analyzing the impacts of newly built intercity railway on travel frequency are of significant importance in both theoretical research and engineering practice of transportation planning.Based on travel choice behavior theory,two linked Multinomial Logit models were applied to describe the choice behavior of travelers under changing travel environment.The first model simulated the choice of travel mode for travelers with different origin-destination(OD)pairs and the second model simulated the choice of travel frequency by travelers.By introducing a traveler's consumer surplus variable,the two models were linked with each other.Using the Nanjing-Huai'an High-speed Railway(Nanjing-Huai'an Intercity Railway),which was about to commence operation,as the research background,changes in travel frequency were quantitatively analyzed based on revealed preference survey data and stated preference survey data.The results showed that the Multinomial Logit model was suitable for predicting induced passenger flow after changes in travel environment;travelers'consumer surplus was a key factor affecting changes in travel frequency,and social characteristics of travelers and economic development characteristics of OD cities had significant impacts on travel frequency;in-vehicle travel time was a key factor affecting demand elasticity of travel frequency,demand-elasticity values for short-distance business travel and non-business travel ranged from-0.61 to-0.79,and the results of elasticity analysis predicted that,after the opening of the Ninghuai Intercity Railway,travel frequency of travelers from Nanjing to destinations such as Huai'an,Suqian,Lianyungang,and Yancheng increased by approximately 45%.关键词
城际铁路/诱增客流/出行频次/选择行为/多项式Logit模型Key words
intercity railway/induced passenger flow/travel frequency/choice behavior/Multinomial Logit model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
程谦..新建城际铁路对出行频次影响的仿真研究[J].铁道标准设计,2026,70(2):1-7,45,8.基金项目
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2020SJZDA136) （2020SJZDA136）
江苏省社科应用研究协同创新基地专项课题(22XTA-26) （22XTA-26）
江苏铁路文化发展研究院开放基金(TWK2021002) （TWK2021002）
中国铁路上海局集团有限公司科研计划课题(2023050) （2023050）
